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CFA三级高频问答精选-业绩归因|品职错题本

  • 原创 2019-06-06
  • 品职教研团队

做过的题你都能拿分吗?


临近考试,小编相信大家都开始启用“题海”战术,疯狂刷题,可是你现在做过的题,你考场碰到都能做对吗?

 

同为备考党的我,小编只想说,如果只做过一遍,那怕是有点难。

我相信大家都是从题海战术里走出来的朋友们,其实刷题就是一个熟能生巧的事情,即使可能你对某个知识点不理解,但是同一个题型你做完3次后,就有一种闭着眼睛我都能认出你的熟悉感,剥掉题干的外壳,其实都是同一个套路。

 

那么到底哪些题目是有典型考法,哪些知识点是易错的点,哪些是协会的惯用套路,这就是大家考前需要拿个小本本记下来的事情。

 

看到这里,是不是大家都有一种蠢蠢欲动,要赶紧去做笔记的想法?

知道目前大家都在争分多秒学习,贴心的品职教研组的小哥哥、小姐姐们也是熬夜赶工(心疼一下),帮大家整理了CFA三个级别学科的错题本,希望在最后的时候能给大家起到助力的作用。


在接下来的几周里,我们会陆续发放三个级别的高频问答,希望对大家的备考有所帮助。今天三级放上业绩归因的错题本,大家一起来看看这些题都会做吗?


三级的Performance evaluation业绩归因整体的结构非常清晰,从业绩测量到业绩归因和业绩评价。整体上知识点逻辑性比较强,考点也比较常规。下面总结几个大家在有问必答上集中的问题。



精选问答1

题干

The MWR iscalculated by finding the annual return which yields the terminal fund value.So, we solve for the variable 𝑀𝑀𝑇𝑇𝑆𝑆 in the below equation.

250=90(1+MWR)4+5(1+ MWR)3+5(1+MWR)2+120(1+MWR)1−30(1+MWR)0

We get MWR =10.56%.


问题:这道题MWRR这样计算对吗?CF0=90, CF01=5, CF02=5,CF03=120, CF04=-30 ,CPT IRR? 该如何用计算器计算?


解题思路

这个题目正确的计算器按键方法为:CF0=-90CF1=-5CF2=-5CF3=-120CF4=280CPT IRR

易错点分析

MWR一般不会要求计算,主要还是考察性质为主。在这个题目中,最后一期2016年是取出了30之后,year-end value250,所以最后投资得到的value应该是280,在计算器中也需要按CF4=280 而不是CF4=30. 另外需要注意符号问题,初始投资了90,那么对应的第一期cash flow-90,这样比较好理解。CF0=90CF1=5CF2=5CF3=120CF4=-280这样也可以得到相同的计算结果。




精选问答2

问题

Currently, Andrews is considering the performance of the BITR3 fund with some limited information, shown in Exhibit 1.

The primary reason for the TWR differing from the MWR for the BITR3 fund is most likely:

  1. a withdrawal prior to the fundvalue rising.

  2. withdrawals being larger in magnitude than contributions.

  3. a contribution prior to the f

  4. und value rising.

答案解析

A is correct.

The TWR is greater than the MWR because there is a large withdrawal of €2.5 million prior to significant fund growth of 9.6% (i.e., [8.0/7.3] - 1 = 9.6%). In this case, the €1.5 million contribution prior to modest growth is inconsequential and, inisolation, would actually move the MWR to be greater than the TWR.


解题思路

问题:为什么在涨价之前做contribution就能判断出MWR>TWR?


现金流会影响MWR的大小。通过观察如果发现在很大正收益之前有一笔大规模现金流流入,或是在很大亏损前有大笔现金流流出,那么MWR就大于TWR

易错点分析

MWR会受到外部现金流发生时间的影响。需要根据现金流的方向和接下来的return综合判断MWR会大于还是小于TWR



精选问答3

问题

As a result, Driver’s first order of business is to develop a new, more appropriate benchmark portfolio. He considers one of the following three options for the benchmark:

Option 1  Absolute return based on a minimum return target of 9.5%

Option 2  Manager universe based on the median of the US Large Cap Core Equity universe

Which of the following properties of a valid benchmark do benchmark Option 1 and Option 2 possess?

A: Investible.

B: Measurable

C: Unambiguous


解题思路

问题是问的12满足什么benchmark标准,C选项为什么不对?option2为什么是可以符合Measurable


题目问的是两者有什么共同的特点。


Option 1 是用绝对数字的收益率作为benchmark,对于数字来说,肯定可计量的,但是不符合可投资性investible


Option 2是采用类似portfolio基金经理业绩表现的中位值作为benchmark,这个benchmark是可计量的,是因为基金经理投资之后,可以根据每个投资经理的收益进行排序,排序之后找到中位值。但是这个benchmark是不能提前在事前确定的,只能当投资业绩都已经实际发生了,才能明确知道这个中位数是多少。


C选项中unambiguous有两个要素,第一构成benchmark的权重是已知的,第二benchmark当中构成的所有要素是已知的,对于option 1 2都不满足。

 

易错点分析

这里之所以对option2中可计量标准稍有模糊,主要是与另外一个标准specified in advance混淆理解了,对于measurable只是要求可能计量,但不要求一定是提前能知晓计量的结果是多少。



精选问答4

问题

Kim Lee Ltd., an investment management firm in Singapore managing portfolios of Pacific Rim equities, tells you that its benchmark for performance is to be in the top quartile of its peer group (Singapore managersrunning portfolios of Pacific Rim equities) over the previous calendar year. Isthis a valid benchmark? Why or why not?


答案解析

问题:答案中所描述“... but the universe should notbe used ex ante as a performance benchmark, 可以麻烦阐述一下意思吗?题目中的benchmark是基于去年的数据得来的,用于衡量今年的业绩,为什么就不是事前就知道的呢?(可能现实中业绩评估需要时间,月初不会立刻披露?)另外,如果benchmark is not investable (no passive option available),是不是同时可以得知,it is not unambiguous?


ex ante return是事前的收益率,就是在投资发生前预测的收益率,ex post return是事后的收益率,也就是说发生了才知道结果到底是多少。对于题目中描述的manager universe这种benchmark,其中一大缺点就是只有发生之后才能确定最终benchmark是多少,也就是一种ex post return 或者说not be used ex ante as a performance benchmark.


所以这句话整体的意思是说,要选出和上一年相比,peers的收益率前25%的投资组合的收益作为benchmark,但是这个benchmark不能作为一个事前的就确定的比较标准。


这里over the previous year,是说今年比去年的收益率,我们算收益率就是用(ending value -beginning value)/beginning value,这里题目说的去年就是公式中的beginning value, ending value只有今年结束之后才能知道是多少。


关于unambiguous, 基本上是和investable是相似的。对于manager universe这种benchmark的一大特点就是not investable

 

易错点分析

对于Manager universe这种benchmark,需要等到实际投资都结束之后才能最终确定比较基准这个特点会经常考到,也是跟其他benchmark非常不一样的特点。



精选问答5

题干

Monique Cobalt is chairman of the investment committee for the Gladwyne Manufacturing defined benefit pension fund (the Fund), which uses several asset management firms for its investments. 


Cobalt hired analyst, LeeChin, to improve the Fund’s performance attribution reporting. Chin begins by gathering portfolio returns, valuations, and external cash flows for each asset manager, and then designs new manager attribution reports.

Once that is complete, he conducts an asset/liability analysis for the Fund. He then works with the committee to reevaluate the Fund’s risk tolerance, reviewing participant demographic information and Gladwyne’s financial stability.

A. i. Identify the performance attribution methodology that Chin should use to complete his performance attribution reporting.

ii. Discuss two additional inputs needed to complete this type of analysis.


答案解析

i. Chin should prepare a macro performance attribution report. This is required in order for the committee to understand the overall results of the Fund compared to its benchmark, and to analyze the effects of the committee’s decisions (asset allocation, manager allocation, choice of benchmarks) on theFund.


ii. Macro attribution analysis requires two additional inputs:policy allocations and benchmark portfolio returns. Fund sponsors determine policy allocations, or “normal” weightings for each asset class and individual manager. 


Fund sponsors typically determine these weightings from a review ofasset/liability analysis and risk tolerance. Benchmark portfolio returns are necessary to adequately evaluate the value added by the managers. 


Fund sponsors may use broad market indexes as benchmarks for asset categories and the entire portfolio, and may use more focused indexes to represent a manager’s investment style and mandate.


解题思路

想问一下macro attribution里面算Rp-Rb=Alpha需要的指标,除了题目中已经指出的Rp valuationexternal cash flows以外, 为什么只缺WbRb 难道Wp不需要吗?


对于宏观归因,我们首先需要明确的宏观归因是站在基金经理外部来做业绩收益的分析的,它是看不到portfolio究竟是如何配置的,也不用知道portfolio中每项资产的权重。宏观归因我们是把Rp多角度分解了一下,分别是Net contributions 0,起点项)→ Risk free asset (无风险资产) Asset categories (资产大类投资)→ Benchmark level (投资风格的确定)→ Investment managers (投资经理的active return)→ Allocation effects(调平项)


这里在具体的题目中有两种表现形式:一种是return %(又叫return metrics),比如Rp=10%, 其中rf=3%, asset categories=2%, asset categories =2%, benchmarklevel=1%, investment managers=2%, 另外一种就是dollar金额形式(dollar metrics),比如组合起初100块,期末110块,那么对应rf=3, asset categories=2, benchmark level =1, investment managers=1.

 

易错点分析

宏观归因最核心的就是站在基金经理外部来做业绩收益的分析,考试的形式非常固定,记住和理解这六个分解的level就可以。



精选问答6

题干

Coates asks Baker. “Given all of the assessment we are performing onequity and bond managers, what are the consequences of firing a manager?”

Baker answers,“The expense of frequent manager turnover is only of concern if we commit Type2 errors. 


However, we should also be concerned with discontinuing the servicesof skillful managers solely based on our quantitative assessment metrics, whichis an example of a Type I error. 


Consequently, in addition to quantitative assessment, we should also interview the fund manager face-to-face beforeeither deciding to retain or terminate him or her, just as was done at the initial hire.”

The most accuratepart of Baker’s answer to Coates’ question about the consequences of firing amanager is the portion related to?

A: interviewing the fund manager

B: the expense associated with manager turnover

C: the description of a Type I error


答案解析

A is correct.


Before deciding to retainor fire a manager, best practices suggest interviewing the manager face-to-face in addition to using quantitative metrics. The interview should be similar to the type of interview that would occur when determining if a fund should startinvesting with a particular manager.


解题思路

问题:此题关于expense of frequent manager turnover is only of concern if we committype 2 errors课件讲解没听明白,无论开除哪种不都是expense of turnover吗?这句话哪里不对,不太明白?


这里可以这样来理解,如果好的基金经理被开除了,那么公司要承担的不仅仅是更换基金经理这个行为所带来的成本(比如招聘等),而且因为是好的基金经理,它的业绩高于大盘的,所以新换的基金经理不行的话,公司的业绩也会受到影响,所以不仅仅是expense of 换基金经理这个行为,还要综合考虑对业绩的影响。

易错点分析

这里有点类似机会成本的概念,所以这里的expense不能仅仅考虑更换这个基金经理所带来的成本。


再来明确一下业绩归因中基金经理留用与辞退的Type IType II error

Type I 不好的投资经理被留用了。

Type II 好的投资经理被解雇了。