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CFA二级高频问答精选-经济学|品职错题本

  • 原创 2019-05-10
  • 品职教研团队


做过的题你都能拿分吗?

临近考试,小编相信大家都开始启用“题海”战术,疯狂刷题,可是你现在做过的题,你考场碰到都能做对吗?

 

同为备考党的我,小编只想说,如果只做过一遍,那怕是有点难。

我相信大家都是从题海战术里走出来的朋友们,这其实就是一个熟能生巧的事情,即时可能你对某个知识点不理解,但是同一个题型你做完3次后,就有一种闭着眼睛我都能认出你的熟悉感,剥掉题干的外壳,其实都是同一个套路。

 

那么到底哪些题目是有典型考法的,哪些知识点是比较易错的点,这就是大家考前需要拿个小本本记下来的事情。

 

看到这里,是不是大家都有一种蠢蠢欲动,要赶紧去做笔记的想法?

知道目前大家都在争分多秒学习,贴心的品职教研组的小哥哥、小姐姐们也是熬夜赶工(心疼一下),帮大家整理了CFA三个级别学科的错题本,希望在最后的时候能给大家起到助力的作用。


在接下来的几周里,我们会陆续发放三个级别的高频问答,希望对大家的备考有所帮助。今天二级放上经济学的错题本,大家一起来看看这些题都会做吗?


精选问答1:影响汇率买卖价差的因素

题干

Mehmet asks Smith to assist with a trade involving a US multinational customer operating in Europe and Japan. Thecustomer is a very cost conscious industrial company with a AA credit rating and strives to execute its currency trades at the most favorable bid/offer spread.


Because its Japanese subsidiary is about to close on a major European acquisition in three business days, the client wants to lock in a trade involving the Japanese yen and the Euro as early as possible the next morning,preferably by 8:05 AM New York time.


The factor least likely to lead to a narrow bid/offer spread for the industrial company’s needed currency trade is the:


  • 选项A

    timing of its trade


  • 选项B

    company’s credit rating


  • 选项C

    Monte Carlo style VAR assuming zero drift with full repricing


  • 选项D

    pair of currencies involved    

答案解析

B is correct. While credit ratings can affect spreads, the trade involves spot settlement, i.e. two business days after the trade date, so the spread quoted to this highly rated (AA) firm is not likely to be much tighter than the spread that would be quoted to asomewhat lower rated (but still high quality) firm. 


The relationship between the bank and client, the size of the trade, the time of day the trade is initiated, the currencies involved and the level of market volatility are likely to be more significant factors in determining the spread for this trade.

 

解题思路

存在四个影响银行间市场间BID-ASKSPREAD的因素,它们分别是交易币种、交易时间短、市场的波动性以及远期汇率间的SPREAD


在本题中,日元和欧元是属于经常交易的货币,所以会降低SPREAD


本题中交易时间在纽约时间6点到8点之间,这属于最大两个交易市场开市时间,所以也会降低SPREAD


B选项不属于上述四个影响因素。

 

易错点分析

公司信用好坏对即期汇率报价的影响非常小,而且在本题中,即便AA信用等级被降级,新的评级结果也可能是一个比较高的级别,考虑到公司会很快实施货币交易,所以违约风险极小,这个因素便不予考虑。

 


精选问答2:盯市价值

题干

BBQ firm is an American company and exported steel to a firm which is in England. For some reasons, BBQ will receive the payment of 3,600,000 GBP in six months and the firm would change these pounds into dollars.


To hedge the currency risk, BBQ enters a 6 month forward contract to sold GBP at 1.5512 USD/GBP。


Three months passed. Now, the spot exchange market rate is 1.5500 USD/GBP for bid and 1.5505 for ask .The firm collects the forward rates and 90-Day Libor in the following tables:

According to the above information, the mark-to-market value for BBC’s forward position is closest to:

  • 选项A:USD324.


  • 选项B:USD-323.64.


  • 选项C:USD 323.64.

解题思路

C is correct.


BBQ公司进入了一份时长6个月的外汇合约。它担心未来卖出GBP时,GBP贬值,所以该合约是卖GBPUSD,即在合约到期时公司要以1.5512USD/GBP的价格卖出GBP 现在距离签订最初合约已经过去三个月,那么截止当前,该合约还剩3个月到期。


由于3个月后公司需要进入一份与期初头寸相反的对冲合约来结束期初的合约,所以那时BBQ应该买入GBP,卖出USD。买入GBP就需要以做市商的卖价( ask )买入 所以我们求得未来3个月 USD/GBP的市场报价。 1.5505 +0.00061=1.55111


由于买价是1.55111,卖价是1.5512。所以3,600,000 GBP的本金在合约到期时的利润就是 1.5512-1.55111 )×3,600,000 = 324USD。但是这个数值是到期时合约的价值,我们还要把它往前折现3个月才能求得合约在当前的价值。本题中的标价货币是USD,所以折现时候需要使用USD3个月利率水平。 USD 324 /[1+0.0045(90/360 )] =USD 323.64

解题思路

经济学中计算合约的Mark to market,是假设在原合约结束时签订一份反向对冲合约。本题中这份合约是买入GBP,所以要用做市商的卖价。最后一定不要忘了对价值进行折现,折现时一定要选准币种和时间。


因为本题的标价货币是USD,所以折现选用的是USD的利率水平,因为该时刻距离合约结束还有3个月,所以是选用3个月USD的利率水平。

  


精选问答3:资本深化和技术进步

题干

Economic data of a country is showed below:

According to the economic data, which of the three counties most likely rely on the capital deepening?    

  • 选项A:Country X.


  • 选项B:Country Y.


  • 选项C:Country Z.


答案解析

A is correct.

X=2.6-0.8=1.8

Y=1.8-1=0.8

Z=1-(-0.1) =1.1


Country A’s labor productivity grew by 2.6%per year, of which 1.8% came from capital.

 

解题思路

一国人均产出即劳动力劳动效率的增加来自于两个方面:资本深化以及技术的进步,这一观点可以近似用下式概括:


Growth rate of labor productivity= Growth rate of TFP+ Growth rate of capital deepening 假设劳动力恒定不变


那么,资本深化的增长就等于劳动效率的增长减去技术进步的增长。


所以计算结果是A国的数值最高1.8。这就表明A国对于资本深化最依赖,资本深化对于该国经济增长的贡献最大。

易错点分析

注意到上面的式子只是一个简化的表达,这个式子中不带α,它仅仅表达了这样一个思想:劳动效率的增加来自于两个方面:资本深化以及技术的进步。其次,本题中比较不同国家间资本深化的贡献,是直接比较绝对数值(而非相对占比),这也是教材提供的标准解法。



精选问答4:股票市场与可持续增长

题干

Observation 1The stock market of Country A has appreciated considerably over the past several years. Also, the ratio of corporate profits to GDP for Country A has been trending upward over the past several years and is now well above its historical average.


Based upon Observation 1, in the long runthe ratio of profits to GDP in Country A is most likely to:

  • 选项A:remain near its current level.


  • 选项B:increase from its current level.


  • 选项C:decrease from its current level.

答案解析

C is correct. The ratio of profits to GDP for Country A has been trending upward over the past several years, and is now well above its historical average. The ratio of profits to GDP cannot rise forever. 


At some point stagnant labor income would make workers unwilling towork without an increase in wages and would also undermine demand, making further expansion of profit margins unsustainable. Thus, it is likely that the ratio of profits to GDP will decline in the long run toward its historical average.

 

解题思路

公式%P=%GDP+%△( E/GDP +%△( P/E )。上述公式中,在长期earnings相对于GDP的长期增长率%△( E/GDP )应该为0。因为如果该比率一直持续增长,那么公司总有一天会吞并国家,这在现实生活中是不可能发生的。现在该比率已经常年增长并且高于历史均值,那么就预示着它在未来会出现下跌。


易错点分析

上述公式中%△( E/GDP )以及%△( P/E )这两项的长期均值都应该为0,股价长期增长只和一国GDP增长有关。上述公式和该结论大家要牢记,很多同学选错答案,是因为不知道题目的考点在哪里。


精选问答5:经济监管

题干

After Regulation Q was imposed, the demand for money market funds most likely:


  • 选项A:increased


  • 选项B:decreased


  • 选项C:remain unchanged

答案解析

A is correct. Regulation Q set a ceiling onthe interest rates paid by banks for various types of deposits, which resulted in investors’ shifting funds to money market funds.

 

解题思路

首先大家需要区分,货币市场和银行利率存款市场是两个市场。Regulation Q使得利率不能超过某个临界值,所以会降低投资者的储蓄比重。人们会把更多的钱投入货币市场用来买货币基金(比如国债等,不包含储蓄),因此会使货币基金的需求量上升。

易错点分析

本题易错点在于,部分同学会把货币市场和银行利率存款市场混同为同一个市场。一旦陷入这个误区,就无法得到正确答案了。此外通过本题大家要对Regulation Q的内容有一个大概的印象。



精选问答6:监管者

题干

Genovia has recently introduced a new accounting statute. In Genovia, there is an independent regulator—"Lerégulateur." Le régulateur is not a self-regulating organization (SRO).There is also an SRO—"L’organisation." L’organisation is not anindependent regulator.


In her research report, Stephenson makes the following statements:


Statement 1: Le régulateur has been given legal authority by the government to enforce the new statute.


Statement 2: L’organisation issues administrative regulations related to the new statute using government funding.


Which of Stephenson’s statements regarding Le régulateur and L’organisation is correct?

  • 选项A:Only Statement 1 is correct.

  • 选项B:Only Statement 2 is correct.

  • 选项C:Both Statement 1 and Statement 2 are correct.

答案解析

A is correct. Le régulateur, as an independent regulator but not an SRO, has legal authority from the Genovia government to regulate. Therefore, Le régulateur both enacts and enforces regulations related to the new accounting statue in Genovia.

 

解题思路

因为"Le régulateur"是独立的regulator,因此它是获得政府机构授权的,所以有资格制定并实施准则  所以说法一正确。


因为" Lorganisation ”是SRO, SRO就不能依赖于政府的出资来运作。所以说法二不正确。本题A选项入选

易错点分析

只要一个组织是SRO,那么不管这个组织是不是独立的监管者,它都不能依赖政府出资运作,独立监管者的划分和接不接受出资划分是无关的。独立监管者的划分是要看一个SRO的权力是不是来自政府授予的。如果权力还是来自政府的认可,那么这样的SRO就是独立监管者,否则就不是独立的监管者。


精选问答7:Triangular Arbitrage

题干

Louise Tremblay is a portfolio manager for a global equity fund domiciled in the United States. She wants to add positionsin foreign stocks from Canada and also stocks from either Brazil or Ecuador.


Tremblay calls Hal Baroque, the firm’s economist, to arrange a meeting todiscuss his outlook for these economies and issues related to foreign exchange relations and international asset pricing.


During the meeting, Baroque presents the information he gathered in preparation for their discussion, as shown in Exhibit 1.


EXHIBIT 1

SELECTED CURRENCY EXCHANGES AND MARKETRATES

Country   Currency Spot Exchange Ratea      One-Year Risk-Free Rate Expected Annual Inflation Rate

 

EXHIBIT 1

SELECTED CURRENCYEXCHANGES AND MARKET RATES


a.    Numberof foreign currency units per one US dollar.

b.    Ecuadoruses the US dollar as its official currency.

 

If a dealer’s bid-side quote for the CAD/BRL is C$0.5250, Tremblay’s profit on a US$1,000,000 initial investment in the triangular arbitrage opportunity is closest to:


  • 选项A:US$31,328.

  • 选项B:US$31,315.

  • 选项C:US$21,135.


答案解析

C is correct. It is cheaper to buy Canadian dollars indirectly through Brazilian reals than directly with US dollars. Thiscreates a triangular arbitrage opportunity:


US$1,000,000×2.3844=BRL 2,384,400

2,384,400×0.5250=C$1,251,810

C$1,251,810/1.2259=US $1,021,135

US$1,021,135-US$1,000,000=us$21,135profit


A is incorrect because it uses the ask sidefor the Real (2.4082 instead of the correct 2.3844).


B is incorrect because it uses the bid sidefor the CAD$ (i.e., in the last step divides by 1.2138 rather than the correct1.2259). 

解题思路

根据表格,可得在外汇市场上存在报价:C$0.5040-0.5141/BRL,低于做市商报的买价0.5250C$/BRL。所以做市商处的BRL更贵,那就应该在做市商处卖出BRL,买进C$


所以先在外汇市场上用US$BRLUS$1,000,000×2.3844=BRL 2,384,400

再在做市商处卖出BRL,换取C$2,384,400×0.5250=C$1,251,810,最后再在外汇市场上卖出C$,换回US$C$1,251,810/1.2259=US $1,021,135


利润等于US$1,021,135-US$1,000,000=US$21,135

易错点分析

首先注意到,题目只给出了做市商关于BRL的买价,那其实也是暗示我们在做市商那里应该卖掉BRL,买进其他货币。其次在具体套利的时候,一定要选准买价和卖价。投资者买入某种货币,是要用该货币做市商卖价的报价,投资者卖出某种货币,是要用该货币做市商买价的报价。



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