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梁 · 2022年05月03日

逻辑能整理一下吗

* 问题详情,请 查看题干

NO.PZ201809170400000403

问题如下:

James Leonard is a fund-of-funds manager with Future Generation, a large sovereign fund. He is considering whether to pursue more in-depth due diligence processes with three large-cap long-only funds proposed by his analysts. Although the funds emphasize different financial metrics and use different implementation methodologies, they operate in the same market segment and are evaluated against the same benchmark. The analysts prepared a short description of each fund, presented in Exhibit 1.

When Leonard’s analysts met with Asgard, they inquired whether its managers engage in activist investing because Asgard’s portfolio frequently holds significant positions, because of their large asset size, and because of their emphasis on strong governance and their ability to model sources of cash-flow strengths and weaknesses within each business. The manager indicated that Asgard engages with companies from a long-term shareholder’s perspective, which is consistent with the firm’s low portfolio turnover, and uses its voice, and its vote, on matters that can influence companies’ long-term value.

Leonard wants to confirm that each manager’s portfolios are consistent with its declared style. To this end, Exhibit 2 presents key financial information associated with each manager’s portfolio and also with the index that all three managers use.


Which manager is most likely to get caught in a value trap?

选项:

A.

Furlings

B.

Asgard

C.

Tokra

解释:

C is the correct answer. A value trap occurs when a stock that appears to have an attractive valuation because of a low P/E and/or P/B multiple (or other relevant value proxies) appears cheap only because of its worsening growth prospects. Although a pitfall such as value trap is more common in fundamental investing, a quantitative process that relies on historical information and does not integrate future expectations about cash flows or profitability may be unable to detect a value trap.

A is an incorrect answer. Although Furlings is a top-down manager, its sector portfolios are built through investing in a small number of high-conviction securities after its analysts have dissected the financial statements and analyzed the competitive landscape and growth prospects. Managers at Furlings are more likely than managers at Tokra to be aware of the significant deteriorating prospects of a security they are considering for investment.

B is an incorrect answer. One of Asgard’s investment criteria is identifying firms that have good potential cash flow growth over the next three years. The firm has access to database and support tools, allowing its analysts to evaluate many potential growth metrics. Managers at Asgard are more likely than managers at Tokra to be aware of the significant deteriorating prospects of a security they are considering for investment.

value trap是你以为他是Value 但是现在表现得不好现在 p/B低 以后会高所以去买他的意思吗

但是选项C与index相比已经表现得很VALUE还要去买他吗

不是应该买本来是定位value的但现在短暂偏离value的那种吗

2 个答案

伯恩_品职助教 · 2022年05月06日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


老师不好意思还是没有搞懂 value一般看价格低你以为以后会涨 但C P/B P/E已经很高了 还会去买他吗 value trap is a stock that appears to be attractively valued— with a low P/E multiple (and/or low price-to-book-valueor price-to-cash-flowmultiples)——如果是图表2中是有问题的,不应该,这个题没有提要参考图表2,应该是只看图表1,

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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

伯恩_品职助教 · 2022年05月04日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


value trap是你以为他是Value 但是现在表现得不好现在 p/B低 以后会高所以去买他的意思吗——不完全是,value trap是指本来想买便宜的(低PE或者低PB之类的,就是低估),但是某个股票是由于基本面恶化导致的低估值,而不是原本想的因为市场的波动导致本来很好的公司给低估了而买入。这样因为买入的因为基本面恶化导致低估值的股票没有买到便宜好的股票,就是没占到便宜,甚至反而可能因为进本面进一步恶化导致亏损。


但是选项C与index相比已经表现得很VALUE还要去买他吗

不是应该买本来是定位value的但现在短暂偏离value的那种吗——这里是说哪个可能陷入value trap,由于Tokra用的scoring approach的方法,那么肯定是用的历史信息来判断是不是低PB,而不是研判其后期的经营情况看是不是低PB。因为股票反应的是预期,如果预期股票的经营恶化会下跌,导致估值变低。如果不去研判未来走势盲目买入看似低估值的股票就会陷入value trap。所以C对,Tokra容易陷入value trap

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加油吧,让我们一起遇见更好的自己!

梁 · 2022年05月06日

老师不好意思还是没有搞懂 value一般看价格低你以为以后会涨 但C P/B P/E已经很高了 还会去买他吗 value trap is a stock that appears to be attractively valued— with a low P/E multiple (and/or low price-to-book-valueor price-to-cash-flowmultiples)

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