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庄园monar · 2022年05月02日

看不懂选项,不应该是拒绝原假设吗?

NO.PZ2017092702000132

问题如下:

An analyst tests the profitability of a trading strategy with the null hypothesis being that the average abnormal return before trading costs equals zero. The calculated t-statistic is 2.802, with critical values of ± 2.756 at significance level α = 0.01. After considering trading costs, the strategy’s return is near zero. The results are most likely:

选项:

A.

statistically but not economically significant.

B.

economically but not statistically significant.

C.

neither statistically nor economically significant.

解释:

A is correct.

The hypothesis is a two-tailed formulation. The t-statistic of 2.802 falls outside the critical rejection points of less than –2.756 and greater than 2.756, therefore the null hypothesis is rejected; the result is statistically significant. However, despite the statistical results, trying to profit on the strategy is not likely to be economically meaningful because the return is near zero after transaction costs

本题的|test statistics|>|critical value|,即2.802>2.756。所以检验的结果是拒绝strategy's return=0的原假设,此时就是statistically significant。

“After considering trading costs, the strategy’s return is near zero”,说明从经济意义上是不值得去做这个策略的,即not economically significant。

看不懂选项,不应该是拒绝原假设吗?

1 个答案

星星_品职助教 · 2022年05月03日

同学你好,

拒绝原假设得出的结论是statistically significant,

但是统计上的假设检验没有考虑交易费用等问题,考虑后这笔交易就无法真正的盈利,这就是从实际的经济意义上是不值得去做这个策略的,即not economically significant

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2023-12-20 22:19 1 · 回答

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