NO.PZ2018091702000026
问题如下:
Ron believes that, if any industry performs below its ten-year average level, it will always recover to the mean in the near future.
The belief is supported by
选项:
A.
anchoring and adjustment bias.
B.
confirmation bias.
C.
the gambler’s fallacy.
解释:
C is correct.
考点:识别behavior bias
解析:the gambler’s fallacy是指人们错误地预计了某些事件回归均值的概率。Ron认为不管什么行业,如果低于十年平均值,未来短期内都会回归到这个均值位置,但事实上如果受外界影响,有些行业会持续低迷,一直维持低于十年平均的水平。
锚定效应和赌徒效应区别是不是不一定均值复归回到原值,而是在波动区间