讲义上这两张图是非常矛盾的，第一张图上说inflation expectation是顺周期，第二张图上又说inflation expectation的期限结构是逆周期，那么所以到底inflation expectation是顺周期还是逆周期？
源_品职助教 · 2022年04月27日
嗨，爱思考的PZer你好：
其实这两章图并不算矛盾。
通胀是顺周期的，此结论是基于，周期模式是已经知晓的情况下（Because cyclical pattern of inflation is known）。
通胀是逆周期的，是介于“horizon structure”这个假设。
这两类假设的区别，原版书也做出了解释，供你参考
Because the cyclical pattern of inflation is well known, inflation expectations will also be procyclical.
It is important, however, to differentiate inflation expectations by horizon.
Very long-term inflation expectations should be virtually unaffected by cyclical fluctuations provided investors maintain confidence in the central bank’s target.
Short horizon expectations will tend to have about the same amplitude as actual inflation.
Inflation, and therefore inflation expectations, over intermediate horizons will be a blend of the different phases of the current and subsequent cycles.
Hence, the amplitude of expectations will decline with horizon—again, provided investors do not lose confidence in the central bank’s target.
一般没有提及“horizon structure”，都还是以顺周期来处理
----------------------------------------------努力的时光都是限量版，加油！