NO.PZ2018091901000048
问题如下:
Wakuluk’s approach to economic forecasting utilizes a structural model in conjunction with a diffusion index to determine the current phase of a country’s business cycle. This approach has produced successful predictions in the past, thus Wakuluk has high confidence in the predictions.
Wakuluk’s approach to economic forecasting:
选项:
A.is flexible and limited in complexity.
can give a false sense of precision and provide false signals.
C. imposes no
consistency of analysis across items or at different points in time.
解释:
B is correct.
Wakuluk’s approach to economic forecasting utilizes both a structural model (e.g., an econometric model approach) and a diffusion index (e.g., a leading indicator-based approach). However, the two approaches have weaknesses: An econometric model approach may give a false sense of precision, and a leading indicator-based approach can provide false signals. Two strengths of the checklist approach are its flexibility and limited complexity, although one weakness is that it imposes no consistency of analysis across items or at different points in time.
解析:Wakuluk的经济预测方法利用了结构模型(如计量模型方法)和扩散指数(如基于领先指标的方法)。然而,这两种方法都有弱点。比如计量经济模型方法可能会给人一种错误的精度感,而基于领先指标的方法可能会提供错误的信号。
题目中没有体现的检查表方法的两个优点是它的灵活性和简单实用性(A不入选),但是它也有缺点,它的一个缺点是在不同的项目或不同的时间点上没有强加一致性的分析(C不入选)。
所以本题中只有B选项正确。
这个是之前老师回答的:“但是它也有缺点,它的一个缺点是在不同的项目或不同的时间点上没有强加一致性的分析(C不入选)” 不是很明白。请解释一下为什么C不对。谢谢