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moon · 2022年04月19日

这句话没有看懂,麻烦老师再解释下,2%是怎么就消除所有股票了?

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NO.PZ202105270100000503

问题如下:

Using the Grinold–Kroner model, which of the following assumptions for forecasting Country A’s expected equity returns is plausible for the very long run?

选项:

A.Rate of net share repurchases B.Corporate earnings growth rate C.Expansion rate for P/E multiples

解释:

B is correct.

Country A’s long-term corporate earnings growth rate of 4% per year is equal to the expected nominal GDP growth rate of 4%, which is an economically plausible long-run assumption. The only very long-run assumptions that are consistent with economically plausible relationships are %ΔE = Nominal GDP growth, %ΔS = 0, and %ΔP/E = 0, where %ΔE is the expected nominal earnings growth rate, %ΔS is the expected percentage change in shares outstanding, and %ΔP/E is the expected percentage change in the price-to- earnings ratio.

A is incorrect because a 2% rate of net share repurchases would eventually eliminate all shares, which is not an economically plausible very long-run assumption. The only very long-run assumptions that are consistent with economically plausible relationships are %ΔE = Nominal GDP growth, %ΔS = 0, and %ΔP/E = 0, where %ΔE is the expected nominal earnings growth rate, %ΔS is the expected percentage change in shares outstanding, and %ΔP/E is the expected percentage change in the price-to- earnings ratio.

C is incorrect because Country A’s perpetually rising P/E would lead to an arbitrarily high price per currency unit of earnings per share. The only very long-run assumptions that are consistent with economically plausible relationships are %ΔE = Nominal GDP growth, %ΔS = 0, %ΔP/E = 0, where %ΔE is the expected nominal earnings growth rate, %ΔS is the expected percentage change in shares outstanding, and %ΔP/E is the expected percentage change in the price-to- earnings ratio.

A国每年4%的长期企业盈利增长率等于4%的预期名义GDP增长率,这是一个经济上合理的长期假设。%ΔE =名义GDP增长,%ΔS = 0,%ΔP / E = 0,其中%ΔE是名义收益增长率,预计的%ΔS是预期的流通股比例的变化,%ΔP / E是预期的价格/收益比率百分比的变化。


A是不正确的,因为2%的净股票回购率最终会消除所有股票,这不是一个经济上合理的长期假设。

C是不正确的,因为A国不断上升的P/E将导致以货币单位计算的每股收益的价格过高

A是不正确的,因为2%的净股票回购率最终会消除所有股票,这不是一个经济上合理的长期假设。


这句话没有看懂,麻烦老师再解释下,2%是怎么就消除所有股票了?

1 个答案

笛子_品职助教 · 2022年04月20日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


这句话没有看懂,麻烦老师再解释下,2%是怎么就消除所有股票了?


这句话的意思是,2%的回购只能是一个短期行为,不可能是长期的,因为如果每年回购2%,50年就全部回购完了,股票就退市了。

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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

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