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mario · 2022年04月19日

短期利率上升为什么cyclical asset not attractive

NO.PZ2018091901000051

问题如下:

Neshie Wakuluk is an investment strategist who determines whether any adjustments need to be made to her initial estimates of the respective aggregate economic growth trends based on historical rates of growth for Countries X and Y (both developed markets) and Country Z (a developing market). Exhibit 1 summarizes Wakuluk’s predictions:

Wakuluk assumes short-term interest rates adjust with expected inflation and are procyclical.

Based on Exhibit 1, what capital market effect is Country Z most likely to experience in the short-term?

选项:

A.

Cyclical assets attract investors.

B.

Monetary policy becomes restrictive.

C.

The yield curve steepens substantially.

解释:

B is correct.

Wakuluk’s model predicts that Country Z’s business cycle is currently in the late upswing phase. In the late upswing phase, interest rates are typically rising as monetary policy becomes more restrictive. Cyclical assets may underperform, whereas the yield curve is expected to continue to flatten.

解析:

依据Wakuluk的模型预测,Z国的商业周期目前处于后期上升阶段。在上升阶段的后期,利率通常会随着货币政策的收紧而上升。所以B选项正确

周期性资产可能表现不佳,而收益率曲线预计将继续趋平。所以AC的说法都有误。

短期利率上升为什么cyclical asset not attractive ?

2 个答案
已采纳答案

源_品职助教 · 2022年04月20日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:



因为Cyclical assets定义就是随着经济周期正向波动的资产,上升后期,经济开始疲软了,

所以Cyclical assets可能就要走坏了。

或者可以这样理解。短期利率升高代表了折现率升高。

而Cyclical assets这类资产本身是不产生现金流的,或者书现金流的影响很少。

那么这时,Cyclical assets资产价格下降。

其实Cyclical assets在这时候价格下降,也是实证中观察到的结果。

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就算太阳没有迎着我们而来,我们正在朝着它而去,加油!

源_品职助教 · 2022年05月05日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


抱歉同学,

这里原版书并没有具体举例哦。

你可以把Cyclical assets换成石油,逻辑上都是适用的。

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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

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