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moon · 2022年04月19日

NO.PZ2020012102000007

问题如下:

Describe the main issues that arise when conducting historical analysis of real estate returns.

选项:

解释:

Properties trade infrequently so there is no data on simultaneous periodic transaction prices for a selection of properties. Analysis therefore relies on appraisals. Secondly, each property is different, it is said to be heterogenous. The returns calculated from appraisals represent weighted averages of unobservable returns. Published return series is too smooth and the sample volatility understates the true volatility of returns. It also distorts estimates of correlations.

解析:房地产交易不频繁,因此没有选择房地产的同时定期交易价格的数据。因此,分析依赖于评价。其次,每个属性都是不同的,它被称为异质的。从估价中计算出的收益是不可观察到的收益的加权平均数。公布的收益序列过于平滑,样本波动率低估了收益的真实波动率。它还扭曲了对相关性的估计。

  1. 什么是appraisal data?
  2. 为什么使用appraisal data不会影响mean of return,但是会低估volatility和correlation?
1 个答案

源_品职助教 · 2022年04月20日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


appraisal data的定义在讲义P12,

是指在一些流动性不佳的市场,由于缺乏数据,对数据平滑后所产生误差。

打个比方,

比如真实数据是1.4.5,4,9,

但是人们拿到手的数据是1,*,5*,9(*表示数据缺失)

那么人们对数据平滑后得到的数据是1,3,5,7,9

可要看到平滑不会改变数据趋势,所以均值影响不大。

但是平滑本身就减少了数据的波动。

然后本来这组数据和评的数据相关性比较高。

你现在平滑了这组数据,把这组数据的特征抹掉了,那原版和它比较高相关性的数据,此刻与之的相关性也降低了。

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就算太阳没有迎着我们而来,我们正在朝着它而去,加油!

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