NO.PZ2018091702000033
问题如下：
Luca Gerber recently became the chief investment officer for the Ludwigs Family Charity, a mid-size private foundation in Switzerland.
Gerhard Ludwigs founded ABC Innovations (ABC), a biotech company dedicated to small cell lung cancer research. For the past two years, ABC has been dedicated to Project M, an effort directed at developing a drug for the treatment of relapses in small cell lung cancer. Project M has delayed its Phase Two trials twice. Published results from Phase One trials have raised some concerns regarding the drug. In its last two quarterly investors’ conference calls, ABC’s CEO was very cautious in discussing expectations for Project M. ABC’s stock price decreased by over 20 percent during the past six months. Gerber believes that the research setbacks are temporary because of ABC’s past success with projects. He expects that ABC will begin Phase Two within a year, and also believes that once Project M goes into Phase Two, ABC’s stock price should reach a new 52- week high of CHF 80.
Indicate which bias is illustrated by Gerber’s focus on the achievement of a 52-week high of CHF 80. Discuss how Gerber could have mitigated its impact.
选项：
解释：
Gerber demonstrated anchoring bias by placing high hope in ABC stock reaching a new 52-week high of CHF 80. Anchoring is an information-processing bias which influences the way people estimate probabilities. When required to estimate a value with unknown magnitude, people generally begin by envisioning some initial default number — an "anchor" — which they then adjust up or down to reflect subsequent information and analysis. Despite setbacks and new information, Gerber did not adjust his view of CHF 80, but continued to cling to this anchor or belief even after reviewing the chief scientist’s report. He perceived new information through a warped lens; thus, the decision making deviated from rational reasoning.
To overcome anchoring bias, Gerber should consciously ask questions that may reveal an anchoring and adjustment bias: "Am I holding on to this stock based on rational analysis, or am I trying to attain a price that I am anchored to, such as the purchase price or a high water mark?" He should look at the basis for his decision to hold ABC to determine if it is anchored to a price target (a new 52-week high) or based on an objective, rational view of the company’s fundamentals. Gerber should have periodically reviewed his decision making process to determine if his analysis of ABC’s prospects was appropriate, focusing more on the company’s fundamentals rather than the price target.
1、跳出这道题出在processing bias的部分，这个人是不是也犯了confirmation bias？
因为他一直在忽略negative information，坚持认为实验会成功，不断在自我加强他的判断。
2、另外，如果在考试中，光看题面的话，感觉也不好区分是belief perseverance bias 还是 processing bias啊，感觉犯了多种bias，脑回路对不上出题人的思路咋办
