NO.PZ2019100901000016
问题如下：
The Prometheo University Scholarship Endowment (the Endowment) was established in 1950 and supports scholarships for students attending Prometheo University. The Endowment’s assets under management are relatively small, and it has an annual spending policy of 6% of the five-year rolling asset value.
Prometheo University recently hired a new chief investment officer (CIO). The CIO directs her small staff of four people to implement an investment policy review. Historically, the endowment has invested 60% of the portfolio in US equities and 40% in US Treasuries. The CIO’s expectation of annual inflation for the next 10 years is 2.5%.
The CIO develops nominal 10-year return assumptions for US Treasuries and US equities, which are presented in Exhibit 1.
Discuss whether the current investment policy is appropriate given the Endowment’s annual spending policy.
解释：
GUIDELINE ANSWER:
●●The policy is not appropriate.
●●The expected real return of 3.54% is less than the spending policy rate of 6%.
●●Therefore, the current allocation and investment objectives are not sustainable.
The nominal expected return on the current portfolio, according to the nominal return assumptions in Exhibit 1, is 6.04% per year (0.6 × 7.4% + 0.4 × 4.0% = 6.04%). The expected real return is approximately 3.54% (6.04% – 2.5% = 3.54%), which is below the 6% spending rate and the stated objective of a 6% real return. Therefore, this real return is not sufficient to meeting the spending policy, which makes the Endowment’s goals unsustainable. The Endowment will need to change its asset allocation to earn higher returns and/or lower its spending policy rate.
nominal spending rate=6%+2.5%=8.5%，nomial expected return=6.04%，which is less than the nominal spending rate.
