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yewei1989 · 2022年03月31日

duration neatual

NO.PZ2021120102000009

问题如下:

An active investor enters a duration-neutral yield curveflattening trade that combines 2-year and 10-year Treasury positions. Underwhich of the following yield curve scenarios would you expect the investor torealize the greatest portfolio gain?

选项:

A.

Bear flattening

B.

bull flattening

C.

Yield curve inversion

解释:

C is correct. A duration-neutral flattening trade involves a short2-year bond position and a long 10-year bond position, which have a “matched”duration or portfolio duration of zero. This portfolio will realize a gain ifthe slope of the yield curve—that is, the difference between short-term andlong-term yields— declines.

Yield curve inversion is an extreme version offlattening in which the spread between long-term and short-termyields-to-maturity falls below zero.

The bear steepening in A involves an unchanged 2-year yield-to-maturitywith a rise in the 10-year yield-to-maturity, causing a portfolio loss.

The bull flattening in B combines a constant 2-yearyield-to-maturity with lower 10-year rates, resulting in a gain on the 10-yearbond position and an unchanged 2-year bond position.

题中只说了duration neatural  那么即可以long 2y short 10y,也可以 short 2y long 10y,为啥用后一种分析?,在前一种前一种情况下 invertion的时候不是亏损最大嘛?

2 个答案
已采纳答案

pzqa015 · 2022年04月01日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


这道题问的是,在收益率曲线flatten的变化下,手中只有2年期债与10年期债,在duration neutral的情况下,哪种收益率曲线变动下的收益更大。、

flatten分为两种,一是bear flatten,二是bull flatten。

对于bear flatten,长短期利率都上涨,短期上涨幅度大于长期上涨幅度,也就是说相对于长期,短期是上涨的,相对于短期,长期是下跌的。那么如果要实现duration neutral下的主动管理,一定是short 短期,long 长期可以获利;

对于bull flatten,长短期利率都下跌,短期利率下跌幅度小于长期利率下跌幅度,也就是说相对于长期,短期还是上涨的,相对于短期,长期还是下跌的,那么仍然是short 短期,long 长期可以获利。

所以,只要是flatten,一定是short 短期,long长期可以获利,但是请注意,这里说的获利,是一个轧差后的净利润为正。

比如bear flatten,长短期利率都上涨,那么Long头寸肯定是有亏损的,只不过short 短期的收益大于Long长期的亏损,二者的收益与亏损轧差后,净利润为正。

bull flatten同理,长短期利率都下降,那么short头寸肯定是有亏损的,只不过Long长期的收益大于short短期的亏损,二者的收益与亏损轧差后,净利润为证。

所以,bear flatten与bull flatten虽然是有profit,但肯定不是最大的,那什么时候大呢,显然,短期利率上涨,short 短期有利润,长期利率下降,long长期有利润,此时,才是收益最大化,短期利率上涨与长期利率下降,就是yield curve inversion,所以选C。

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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

mino酱是个小破货 · 2022年05月14日

老师bear,bull标反了

pzqa015 · 2022年05月14日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


没反哈,bear是利率上涨,bull是利率下跌

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就算太阳没有迎着我们而来,我们正在朝着它而去,加油!

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