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410140980 · 2022年03月10日

delta normal VaR的到底怎么判断?

NO.PZ2016070202000018

问题如下:

Which of the following statements about VAR estimation methods is wrong?

选项:

A.

The delta-normal VAR method is more reliable for portfolios that implement portfolio insurance through dynamic hedging than for portfolios that implement portfolio insurance through the purchase of put options.

B.

The full-valuation VAR method based on historical data is more reliable for large portfolios that contain significant option-like investments than the delta-normal VAR method.

C.

The delta-normal VAR method can understate the true VAR for stock portfolios when the distribution of the return of the stocks has high kurtosis.

D.

Full-valuation VAR methods based on historical data take into account nonlinear relationships between risk factors and security prices.

解释:

Full-valuation methods are more precise for portfolios with options, so answers B and D are correct. The delta-normal VAR understates the risk when distributions have fat tails, so answer C is correct. Answer A is indeed wrong. The delta-normal method will be poor for outright positions in options, or their dynamic replication.

老师能解释一下这道题吗?四个选项几乎都不太理解

2 个答案

DD仔_品职助教 · 2022年03月11日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


同学你好,

1, 可以这么理解 用历史数据就是full valuation的做法

2,尖峰肥尾啊,他俩是一组名词形容同一个分布的呀。峰是尖的说明中间概率低,那么概率都是100%,尾部当然肥了

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努力的时光都是限量版,加油!

DD仔_品职助教 · 2022年03月11日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


同学你好,

这道题就是考结论的,同学记住关键词就可以啦。

题目问下面关于VAR的估计模型不正确的是哪一个。

a说delta normal更适用于做动态对冲的portfolio相对于使用put option做保障的portfolio。错误,delta-normal法不适用于动态组合。

b说full-valuation的方法是基于历史数据的,所以对于大的组合,尤其是含有类似于option的投资产品,full valuation法比delta-normal VAR更好。对,含有option的组合用full-valuation法更可靠。

c说当股票的回报率是有偏分布时,delta-normal的方法更适用。对,肥尾分布应该用delta-normal的方法。

d说full-valuation的方法是基于历史数据来计算的,所以可以考虑到风险因子与股价的非线性关系。也是对的,就是结论。

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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

410140980 · 2022年03月11日

老师那这个full valuation是不是可以直接理解为historical method? C选项delta-normal VAR method can understate the true VAR,是说回低估VaR的意思吗? high kurtosis不是指尖峰吗?没有提到是肥尾啊?

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