BEI的两个角度理解

问题如下：

All else equal, an investor expects future inflation to increase, but the uncertainty of future inflation to fall. For such an investor the break-even inflation rate:

选项：

is uncertain.

is expected to fall.

is expected to rise.

解释：

A is correct.

The break-even inflation rate is the difference between the yield on a zero-coupon, default-free nominal bond and on a zero-coupon default-free, real bond of the same maturity. The rate incorporates changing expectations about inflation and changing perceptions about the uncertainty of the future inflation environment. Consequently, if inflation is expected to rise, while the uncertainty about future inflation falls, (in Equation 10, $\theta_{t,s}$ rises, but $\pi_{t,s}$ falls) it is unclear in which direction break-even inflation rates will move.

考点：break-even inflation rate

解析：break-even inflation rate= expected inflation+ uncertainty of future inflation。等式右边的两项一增一减，因此无法判断最终结果。