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勇往直前 · 2022年03月10日

为什么不是overconfident呢？

  1. CFA I
  2. Portfolio

NO.PZ2018101901000018

问题如下：

In the 1980s, Japan was viewed by many FMPs as the model economy. Although its growth began to decelerate sharply by 1990, it was not until the mid to late 1990s that FMPs’ GDP forecasts were consistently achieved. By taking several years to adapt their forecasts to the lower growth environment, FMPs exhibited which behavioral bias?

选项：

A.

Mental accounting

B.

Overconfidence

C.

Conservatism

解释：

C is correct.

Conservatism bias results in maintain or only slowly updating views and forecasts despite the presence of new information. FMPs in the 1990s were reluctant to update forecasts, despite materially different new information for several years.

为什么不是overconfident呢？

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2 个答案

Kiko_品职助教 · 2022年05月03日

嗨，爱思考的PZer你好：


不是，虽然经济发展放缓了，但FMP还觉得经济发展的很好，这比较明显的体现了保守性，就是他们仍然保持之前的观点。

过度自信的两种形式:预测过度自信和确定性过度自信。

当fmp对其投资预测的置信区间过窄时，就会出现预测过度。

当fmp分配给结果的概率过高时，就会出现确定性过度自信。

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虽然现在很辛苦，但努力过的感觉真的很好，加油！

Kiko_品职助教 · 2022年03月11日

嗨，努力学习的PZer你好：


这道题题干说：在20世纪80年代，日本被许多fmp视为经济发展的典范。尽管经济增长在1990年开始急剧减速，但直到1990年代中后期，FMPs的GDP预测才得以实现。通过几年的时间才终于使得他们的预测适应了较低的增长环境，FMPs表现出的行为偏差是什么?

从1990年的时候，日本经济就已经放缓了，但是FMP就一直保持着80年的观点，就一直觉得日本经济依然发展的很好，直到过去五六年，他们才意识到日本已经处于较低的经济增长环境了。这里比较明显的体现出他们观点的保守性，Boverconfident过度自信结合对题干的解释，看不出来啊。

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虽然现在很辛苦，但努力过的感觉真的很好，加油！

Dang.D · 2022年05月02日

虽然经济发展放缓了，但FMP还觉得经济发展的很好，这难道不是overconfidence么

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