NO.PZ2018091901000053
问题如下：
Neshie Wakuluk is an investment strategist. Exhibit 1 summarizes Wakuluk’s predictions:
Wakuluk decides to focus on Country Y. Wakuluk makes the following observations:
Observation 2 Country Y is expected to significantly increase transfer payments and introduce a more progressive tax regime.
Based on Observation 2, what impact will the policy changes have on the trend rate of growth for Country Y?
选项：
A. Negative
B. Neutral
C. Positive
解释：
C is correct.
Country Y is expected to significantly increase transfer payments and introduce a more progressive tax regime. Both of these changes are progrowth government policies and should have a positive impact on the trend rate of growth for a business cycle that is in slowdown or contraction. Transfer payments help mitigate fluctuations in disposable income for the most vulnerable households, while progressive tax regimes imply that the effective tax rate on the private sector is pro-cyclical (i.e., rising as the economy expands and falling as the economy contracts).
解析：
题目中说道预计Y国将大幅增加转移支付，并引入更累进的税收制度。这两种变化都是促进经济增长的政府政策，应此会对经济放缓或收缩的商业周期的趋势增长率产生积极影响。转移支付有助于缓解最脆弱家庭可支配收入的波动，而累进税制意味着对私营部门的有效税率是顺周期的(例如，经济扩张时上升，经济收缩时下降)。所以C选项正确。
trend GDP应该不受短期政策影响吧，选neutral
