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Lee13 · 2022年02月28日

老师您好,不太清楚是怎么推导出后面那个(2%-Rp)这个公式的?

NO.PZ2015120604000108

问题如下:

If a Portfolio's SFR is 1.4 and  threshold level's return is  supposed to be 2%, what is the probability of return less than 2%?

选项:

A.

8.08%.

B.

30.20%.

C.

9.68%.

解释:

A is correct.

Using the table, we get F( -1.4) is 1 - 0.9192 = 8.08%.

If a Portfolio's SFR is 1.4 and threshold level's return is supposed to be 2%, what is the probability of return less than 2%?

您的回答C, 正确答案是: A 

A

8.08%.

B

30.20%.

C

不正确9.68%.


1 个答案

星星_品职助教 · 2022年02月28日

同学你好,

这道题求的是return<2%的概率。由于threshold return即RL就等于2%,所以本题相当于在求return小于RL的概率。为了方便将return用X替代,则本题最终需要求出的是P(X<RL)。

由于普通正态分布无法查表,所以需要将P(X<RL)做标准化后通过标准正态分布才可以进一步查表解题。

代入正态分布标准化的公式,P(X<RL)即转化为求P(Z)<[ RL-E(Rp) ]/ σp。

而SFR的公式为SFR=[ E(Rp)-RL ] / σp,可以观察到不等式右侧正好就是﹣SFR的形式,所以直接代入SFR=1.4后就等价于求P(Z<-1.4)的概率,对应查出P(Z<-1.4)=F(-1.4)=8.08%

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