NO.PZ2020012201000003
问题如下:
Which of the following phenomenons is often referred to as the “peso problem"
选项:
A.Looking backward, we are likely to underestimate ex ante risk and overestimate ex ante anticipated returns.
B.Looking backward, we are likely to overestimate ex ante risk and overestimate ex ante anticipated returns.
Looking backward, we are likely to underestimate ex ante risk and underestimate ex ante anticipated returns.
解释:
A is correct.
解释:
“peso problem"通常是指在解释给定样本期间的历史价格和收益时,分析师需要评估资产价格是否反映了在此期间没有发生的非常负面事件的可能性。所以回顾过去,我们可能会低估事前风险,高估事前预期回报。所以只有A选项正确。
用ex post发生负面时间后的结果来预测发生前的概率,不是应该高估risk吗?事后已经发生了,肯定把极端风险在预估的时候放进去,高估了risk,高估了return