为什么要看bond yield来决定当前处所的周期？

NO.PZ202001210200000108 问题如下 Baseon Observation 3, Wakuluk most likely expects Country Y’s yielcurve in the neterm to: A.invert B.flatten C.steepen C is correct. The current yielcurve for Country Y suggests ththe business cycle is in the slowwn phase (curve is flto inverte, with bonyiel starting to reflecontractionary contions (i.e., bonyiel are clining). The curve will most likely steepen neterm, consistent with the transition to the contractionary phase of the business cycle, anthe steepest on the cusp of the initirecovery phase. 解析Y国目前的收益率曲线表明，商业周期正处于放缓阶段(曲线从平向反方向)，债券收益率开始反映出紧缩的状况(债券收益率正在下降)。这条曲线在短期内很可能会变陡，与商业周期向收缩阶段的过渡保持一致，并在初始复苏阶段的尖端变得最陡。所以只有C正确。 Observation 3 The current yielcurve for Country Y suggests ththe business cycle is in the slowwn phase, with bonyiel starting to reflecontractionary contions. 题目的条件说 Y是slowwn, 但是bonyiel示的是contraction 解读的特点。 考点是用yielcurve 反推出经济阶段？

NO.PZ202001210200000108 问题如下 Baseon Observation 3, Wakuluk most likely expects Country Y’s yielcurve in the neterm to: A.invert B.flatten C.steepen C is correct. The current yielcurve for Country Y suggests ththe business cycle is in the slowwn phase (curve is flto inverte, with bonyiel starting to reflecontractionary contions (i.e., bonyiel are clining). The curve will most likely steepen neterm, consistent with the transition to the contractionary phase of the business cycle, anthe steepest on the cusp of the initirecovery phase. 解析Y国目前的收益率曲线表明，商业周期正处于放缓阶段(曲线从平向反方向)，债券收益率开始反映出紧缩的状况(债券收益率正在下降)。这条曲线在短期内很可能会变陡，与商业周期向收缩阶段的过渡保持一致，并在初始复苏阶段的尖端变得最陡。所以只有C正确。 但是这张讲义里面，说的是expansion时期，yielcurve是steepen的，contraction时期是inverte。和本题的解析正好相反。我有点不太理解，yielcurve的形状是先行指标还是滞后指标，是yielcurve的变化预示着经济的变化，还是经济变化之后yielcurve才会发生变化。烦请老师下本题和讲义的区别点在哪里

NO.PZ202001210200000108 问题如下 Baseon Observation 3, Wakuluk most likely expects Country Y’s yielcurve in the neterm to: A.invert B.flatten C.steepen C is correct. The current yielcurve for Country Y suggests ththe business cycle is in the slowwn phase (curve is flto inverte, with bonyiel starting to reflecontractionary contions (i.e., bonyiel are clining). The curve will most likely steepen neterm, consistent with the transition to the contractionary phase of the business cycle, anthe steepest on the cusp of the initirecovery phase. 解析Y国目前的收益率曲线表明，商业周期正处于放缓阶段(曲线从平向反方向)，债券收益率开始反映出紧缩的状况(债券收益率正在下降)。这条曲线在短期内很可能会变陡，与商业周期向收缩阶段的过渡保持一致，并在初始复苏阶段的尖端变得最陡。所以只有C正确。 请老师帮忙看看，我的理解是否对。现在阶段是slowwn,即yielcurve表现为inverte因为题目提问是说下一级段是什么表现，下一阶段是contraction,所以答案是steepen，对么？

NO.PZ202001210200000108 问题如下 Baseon Observation 3, Wakuluk most likely expects Country Y’s yielcurve in the neterm to: A.invert B.flatten C.steepen C is correct. The current yielcurve for Country Y suggests ththe business cycle is in the slowwn phase (curve is flto inverte, with bonyiel starting to reflecontractionary contions (i.e., bonyiel are clining). The curve will most likely steepen neterm, consistent with the transition to the contractionary phase of the business cycle, anthe steepest on the cusp of the initirecovery phase. 解析Y国目前的收益率曲线表明，商业周期正处于放缓阶段(曲线从平向反方向)，债券收益率开始反映出紧缩的状况(债券收益率正在下降)。这条曲线在短期内很可能会变陡，与商业周期向收缩阶段的过渡保持一致，并在初始复苏阶段的尖端变得最陡。所以只有C正确。 我的理解是如果经济目前处于slow wn阶段，相当于处于late expansion阶段，因此应该是flcurve；late expansion阶段的下一个阶段就是peak阶段（而不是contraction阶段），因此接下来收益曲线会invert，而不是steepen。

NO.PZ202001210200000108 问题如下 Baseon Observation 3, Wakuluk most likely expects Country Y’s yielcurve in the neterm to: A.invert B.flatten C.steepen C is correct. The current yielcurve for Country Y suggests ththe business cycle is in the slowwn phase (curve is flto inverte, with bonyiel starting to reflecontractionary contions (i.e., bonyiel are clining). The curve will most likely steepen neterm, consistent with the transition to the contractionary phase of the business cycle, anthe steepest on the cusp of the initirecovery phase. 解析Y国目前的收益率曲线表明，商业周期正处于放缓阶段(曲线从平向反方向)，债券收益率开始反映出紧缩的状况(债券收益率正在下降)。这条曲线在短期内很可能会变陡，与商业周期向收缩阶段的过渡保持一致，并在初始复苏阶段的尖端变得最陡。所以只有C正确。 inverte是发生在SLOWWN阶段STEEPEN是发生在CONTRACTION阶段为什么 contraction时候收益率曲线是steepen？长期利率一下子上升这么快