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yaokylu · 2022年02月12日

A 为什么不对？

  1. CFA II
  2. Economics Analysis

NO.PZ2018091706000057

问题如下：

If the emerging market country used capital controls instead, this approach would:

选项：

A.

lead to a less independent monetary policy

B.

be more likely to succeed when capital flows are less persistent

C.

require that the ratio of foreign exchange reserves to FX market turnover be high

解释：

Although the empirical evidence is mixed, to a large extent the relativesuccess of capital controls depends on the magnitude and persistence of the capitalinflows that the policymakers are trying to resist (the less persistent, the higher theeffectiveness). A successful capital control policy tends to increase, not decrease,monetary policy independence. As a regulatory measure, capital controls do not dependdirectly on the level of foreign exchange reserves.

解析：尽管经验证据好坏参半，但在很大程度上，资本管控的有效力取决于政策制定者试图抵御的资本流入的规模和持续性(持续性越弱，有效性越高)。所以B选项正确。

一个成功的资本管控政策倾向于增加而不是减少货币政策的独立性。所以A选项错误。

作为一项监管措施，资本管制并不直接取决于外汇储备水平。所以C选项错误。



资本管控，资金不能自由流动，那货币政策改变，利率降低资金也无法撤离，利率升高资金也无法流入，自然是导致货币政策不好用了。所以 A 选项 没有问题，问什么不选A呢？

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1 个答案

笛子_品职助教 · 2022年02月13日

嗨，爱思考的PZer你好：


这题也可以从三元悖论的角度去理解。


知识点：资本自由流动，独立的货币政策，固定汇率，三者不可兼得。

具体到A选项，资本不能自由流动，是带来货币政策的独立，而不是不独立。


以上是纯理论。


具体到你的问题，资金不能自由流动，那货币政策改变，利率降低资金也无法撤离，利率升高资金也无法流入，自然是导致货币政策不好用了。这个说法，为什么是不正确的。


关键在于，货币政策好用不好用的定义是什么。你这里给货币政策好用不好用的定义是，利率低的时候资金能否撤离本国，或者利率高的时候资金能否流入本国。但是在CFA和经济学里，货币政策好用不好用的定义是，货币政策宽松，能不能刺激总需求，拉动经济，货币政策紧缩，能否降低总需求，降低经济产出和通胀。


如果资本自由流动，货币宽松，国内资金跑出去了，国内的流动性可能就得不到改善，从而不能刺激总需求，拉动经济，效果打折扣。

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