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huangme7 · 2022年02月10日

为什么 被低估的货币可能会降低干预的效用，无论是冲销的还是未冲销的干预

  1. CFA II
  2. Economics Analysis

NO.PZ2018091706000056

问题如下：

 The emerging marketcountry is more likely to engage in sterilized intervention if its:

选项：

A.

inflation rate is high 

B.

currency is undervalued 

C.

currency appreciation is caused by push factors rather than pull factors 

解释：

A country would likely choose sterilized intervention if it had a highinflation rate, because unsterilized intervention would add to the monetary base andpossibly increase inflationary pressures. B is incorrect because an undervalued currencyis likely to lessen the probability of intervention, sterilized or unsterilized, in response tocapital inflows. C is incorrect because both push and pull factors can lead to bubbleconditions, excessive exchange rate appreciation, and the unwanted build-up ofexcessive speculative positions.

解析：如果一个国家的通胀率很高，它很可能会选择冲销干预，因为未冲销干预会增加货币供给量，从而增加通胀压力。A正确。

B是不正确的，因为被低估的货币可能会降低干预的效用，无论是冲销的还是未冲销的干预。

C是不正确的，因为push以及 pull因素都可能导致泡沫状况、汇率过度升值，以及不必要的过度投机仓位。 

B选项还是不理解

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1 个答案

笛子_品职助教 · 2022年02月11日

嗨，从没放弃的小努力你好：


冲销干预这部分已经不考了，考纲改了。


不过要理解一下也不难。

货币被低估，那么货币就会有升值的趋势，外资就会源源不断的流入本国，来买这个货币，博取升值的收益。这个时候如果冲销干预，也就是说，外资流入后，央行收紧流动性，以保持货币供应量不变，就会导致本国货币更加升值，外资更加愿意流入来买本国货币，所以是降低效果的。如果做未冲销的干预，因为货币本身是低估的，央行卖出低估的本国货币，来减缓货币升值，对央行来说是非常不划算的，也会降低干预的效用。



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虽然现在很辛苦，但努力过的感觉真的很好，加油！

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