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FrankSun · 2022年02月09日

关于衰减因子

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NO.PZ201710200100000409

问题如下:

9. The persistence factor suggested by Beckworth will lead to a multistage value estimate of TTCI’s shares that is:

选项:

A.

less than Castovan’s multistage value estimate.

B.

equal to Castovan’s multistage value estimate.

C.

greater than Castovan’s multistage value estimate.

解释:

A is correct.

In Castovan’s multistage valuation, she assumes that TTCI’s residual income will remain constant in perpetuity after Year 3. This perpetuity assumption implies a persistence factor of 1 in the calculation of the terminal value. A persistence factor of 0.10 indicates that TTCI’s residual income is forecasted to decline at an average rate of 90% per year. This assumption would lead to a lower valuation than Castovan’s multistage value estimate, which assumes that residual income will remain constant in perpetuity after Year 3.

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


根据公式,PVRI(t-1)=RI(t-1)*w/(1+r-w).

C同学假设TTCI的剩余收入在第3年之后将保持不变。这种永久性假设意味着在计算最终值时,w为1。也就是PVRIt-1=RI(t-1)/r,此时的PVRI是最大的。

但是根据B同学的假设,w为0.1,此时计算出来的PVRI肯定小于C同学。

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老师,复习到这里的时候,突然卡壳了,有个小疑问,w是衰减因子,是1+g,也就是w等于1的时候,无增长,g等于零,那么估值应该更低吧?也就是说,w越小,g越大,那么估值越大。这个思路错了?

1 个答案

王园圆_品职助教 · 2022年02月09日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


同学你好,当w=1的时候(RI永续保持不变),g=0,而w=0.1的时候(RI缓慢下降至0),g=-0.9.0>-0.9,所以前者相对后者增长率是更高的,即前者的估值应该比后者更高,结论没有问题哦~~

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加油吧,让我们一起遇见更好的自己!

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NO.PZ201710200100000409 问题如下 9. The persistenfactor suggesteBeckworth will leto a multistage value estimate of TTCI’s shares this: A.less thCastovan’s multistage value estimate. B.equto Castovan’s multistage value estimate. C.greater thCastovan’s multistage value estimate. A is correct. In Castovan’s multistage valuation, she assumes thTTCI’s resiincome will remain constant in perpetuity after Ye3. This perpetuity assumption implies a persistenfactor of 1 in the calculation of the terminvalue. A persistenfactor of 0.10 incates thTTCI’s resiincome is forecasteto cline average rate of 90% per year. This assumption woulleto a lower valuation thCastovan’s multistage value estimate, whiassumes thresiincome will remain constant in perpetuity after Ye3. 假如最后算上persistent factor那结果是不是 year3 = 3.47255然后year4 往前这一年 (1+0.12−0.1)(3.47255⋅0.1)​ ,然后得到结果后再往前折现三年??

2023-03-14 14:58 1 · 回答

NO.PZ201710200100000409 请问老师, 李老师上课画的图,w = 1未来 RI比 w降到很低时的RI高 可以这样理解吗? 谢谢!

2021-04-07 00:06 1 · 回答

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2021-03-09 15:55 1 · 回答