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dada · 2022年02月03日

通胀和非预期通胀

NO.PZ2019122802000001

问题如下:

An committee would like to know which alternative asset would best mitigate the risks to the portfolio due to unexpected inflation and also have a relatively low correlation with public equities to provide diversification benefits. Which of the following alternative investments should be recommended?

选项:

A.

hedge funds.

B.

private equities.

C.

commodity futures.

解释:

C is correct.

Real assets (which include energy, infrastructure, timber, commodities, and farmland) are generally believed to mitigate the risks to the portfolio arising from unexpected inflation. Commodities act as a hedge against a core constituent of inflation measures. Rather than investing directly in the actual commodities, commodity futures may be incorporated using a managed futures strategy. In addition, the committee is looking for an asset class that has a low correlation with public equities, which will provide diversification benefits. Commodities are regarded as having much lower correlation coefficients with public equities than with private equities and hedge funds. Therefore, commodities will provide the greatest potential to fulfill the indicated role and to diversify public equities.

理论上只要有收益都能抗通胀,但是题目是要最好的抗通胀和分散股票的效果。那真的是非commodity futures.莫属了。

这个图基本都解释了。虽然HF没有细说分散效果和抗通胀情况。没说代表的就是这方面不是很强,但是也有这方面的能力。然后是commodity futures,这个因为本身就是通胀指标之一,所以抗通胀效果是最好的。

还是进一步解释一下为什么PE和HF的抗通胀效果不怎么样,主要原因是抗通胀主要是指收益大于等于通胀。PE和HF中长期看是没问题的,但是问题是某个时期可能就不行,比如经济滞胀的时候,PE和HF(大部分的HF)和股市走势比较类似,都不好,但是物价却涨的很快。这个时候只有通胀指标是最好的,commodity 。

如果选项中有commercial real estate,题干中说对抗非预期通胀,是不是commercial real estate比commodity更准确?主要是想问一下,题干中说的是非预期通胀,讲义上讲大宗对抗通胀,但没强调是非预期的通胀。

2 个答案

伯恩_品职助教 · 2023年07月30日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


其实我感觉题干想表达应该是恶性通胀,恶性通胀的话房地产的效果就不好,房价甚至会下跌,但是能对抗恶性通胀的只有大宗商品。当然这个没说清楚,所以这两个选项也不应该放在一起。 出这样的题不是增加困扰吗?——对,就是增加困扰。考察同学是否能学精

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努力的时光都是限量版,加油!

伯恩_品职助教 · 2022年02月06日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


其实我感觉题干想表达应该是恶性通胀,恶性通胀的话房地产的效果就不好,房价甚至会下跌,但是能对抗恶性通胀的只有大宗商品。当然这个没说清楚,所以这两个选项也不应该放在一起。


恶性通胀房地产不好,大宗商品好的原因

在货币恶性贬值之后,人们为了吃饭,只能选择将积蓄、房产等能够变现的东西拿出来换一些日用品。当市面上出现过多的这些东西,且人们只对粮食有需求时,那么它们(卖出的东西比如积蓄和房地产)同样会面临着贬值的问题。



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加油吧,让我们一起遇见更好的自己!

火与冰 · 2023年07月30日

其实我感觉题干想表达应该是恶性通胀,恶性通胀的话房地产的效果就不好,房价甚至会下跌,但是能对抗恶性通胀的只有大宗商品。当然这个没说清楚,所以这两个选项也不应该放在一起。 出这样的题不是增加困扰吗?

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