NO.PZ2019011002000015
问题如下：
Li and Wang are two junior analysts in a wealth management company. In a discussion about the shape of credit curve, they made the following statements:
Li’s statement: Upward-sloping credit curves imply a greater likelihood of default in later years, whereas downward-sloping credit curves imply a greater probability of default in the earlier years.
Wang agrees with Li, and adds:
Wang’s statement: Downward-sloping curves are less common and often a result of severe near-term stress in the financial markets.
According to the information above, which statement is incorrect?
选项：
A.Li’s statement is incorrect.
B.Wang’s statement is incorrect.
C.Neither of the statements is incorrect.
解释：
C is correct.
考点：Credit spread curve形状的理解
解析：
两个Statements都是正确的。一般来说Credit spread curve向上倾斜，代表着长期更大的违约可能；而向下倾斜，代表着短期更大的违约概率；因此Li的Statement正确。两种形状的Credit curve，更常见的是Upward-sloping的，向下倾斜的较少，代表着短期金融市场较大的风险。
Wang’s statement: Downward-sloping curves are less common and often a result of severe near-term stress in the financial markets.
问：不是要先考虑公司是investment grade还是high yield，再描述曲线的情况么。 如果是high yield的话，只能说steeper，有可能向上也有可能向下，向下的话也是很常见的吧？而且这时候向下的时候并不是“severe near-term stress”，而是经济向好的情况吧？ 所以wang为什么对？
