emerging

问题如下：

Martin asks the real estate portfolio manager to discuss the performance characteristics of real estate. The real estate portfolio manager makes the following statements:

Statement 1: Adding traded REIT securities to an equity portfolio should substantially improve the portfolio’s diversification over the next year.

Statement 2: Traded REIT securities are more highly correlated with direct real estate and less highly correlated with equities over multi-year horizons.

Martin looks over the long-run valuation metrics the manager is using for commercial real estate, shown in Exhibit 1.

The real estate team uses an in-house model for private real estate to estimate the true volatility of returns over time. The model assumes that the current observed return equals the weighted average of the current true return and the previous observed return. Because the true return is not observable, the model assumes a relationship between true returns and observable REIT index returns; therefore, it uses REIT index returns as proxies for both the unobservable current true return and the previous observed return.

Martin asks the fixed-income portfolio manager to review the foundation’s bond portfolios. The existing aggregate bond portfolio is broadly diversified in domestic and international developed markets. The first segment of the portfolio to be reviewed is the domestic sovereign portfolio. The bond manager notes that there is a market consensus that the domestic yield curve will likely experience a single 20 bp increase in the near term as a result of monetary tightening and then remain relatively flat and stable for the next three years. Martin then reviews duration and yield measures for the short-term domestic sovereign bond portfolio in Exhibit 2.

The discussion turns to the international developed fixed-income market. The foundation invested in bonds issued by Country XYZ, a foreign developed country. XYZ’s sovereign yield curve is currently upward sloping, and the yield spread between 2-year and 10-year XYZ bonds is 100 bps.

The fixed-income portfolio manager tells Martin that he is interested in a domestic market corporate bond issued by Zeus Manufacturing Corporation (ZMC). ZMC has just been downgraded two steps by a major credit rating agency. In addition to expected monetary actions that will raise short-term rates, the yield spread between three-year sovereign bonds and the next highest-quality government agency bond widened by 10 bps.

Although the foundation’s fixed-income portfolios have focused primarily on developed markets, the portfolio manager presents data in Exhibit 3 on two emerging markets for Martin to consider. Both economies increased exports of their mineral resources over the last decade.

The fixed-income portfolio manager also presents information on a new investment opportunity in an international developed market. The team is considering the bonds of Xdelp, a large energy exploration and production company. Both the domestic and international markets are experiencing synchronized growth in GDP midway between the trough and the peak of the business cycle. The foreign country’s government has displayed a disciplined approach to maintaining stable monetary and fiscal policies and has experienced a rising current account surplus and an appreciating currency. It is expected that with the improvements in free cash flow and earnings, the credit rating of the Xdelp bonds will be upgraded. Martin refers to the foundation’s asset allocation policy in Exhibit 4 before making any changes to either the fixed-income or real estate portfolios.

Based only on Exhibit #3, the foundation would most likely consider buying bonds issued by:

选项：

解释：

C is correct.

Emerging market debt requires an analysis of economic and political/legal risks. Based on the macroeconomic factors, the risk of a bond investment in either Republic A or Republic B appears to be high. Thresholds such as the risk guidelines listed in the table below can be used to assess the attractiveness of the two emerging market (EM) opportunities in Republic A and Republic B. Most notably, both republics raise concern based solely on their fiscal deficit-to- GDP ratios greater than 4.00% (Republic A’s is 6.50% and Republic B’s is 8.20%).

Analysis of the economic and political risks associated with the two EM opportunities is suggestive of the need for further scrutiny; therefore, the foundation should not invest in Emerging Republic A or Emerging Republic B based only on the information provided.

新兴市场债务需要对经济和政治/法律风险进行分析。根据宏观经济因素，在A共和国或B共和国进行债券投资的风险似乎都很高。比如下表中列出的风险准则可以用来评估这两个新兴市场的吸引力机和机会。最值得注意的是,这两个国家提高关注是基于他们的财政赤字与国内生产总值(GDP)比率大于4.00%(共和国A是6.50%和共和国B是8.20%)。

对与这两个新兴市场机遇相关的经济和政治风险的分析表明，有必要进行进一步审查。因此，基金会不应仅仅根据提供的信息对新兴国家A或新兴国家B进行投资。