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我是一条鱼 · 2022年01月18日

您好,我对于B中间 “normal distribution"这一段不理解,如果不是这个,我觉得B是对的。

NO.PZ2019122802000036

问题如下:

Which of the following statement about Monte Carlo Simulation in alternative asset allocation is not correct?

选项:

A.

Monte Carlo Simulation relaxes the assumption of normally distributed return.

B.

Monte Carlo Simulation combines the high and low volatility normal distributions to lead a skewed and fat-tailed distribution for alternative investments.

C.

Monte Carlo Simulation is the most robust asset allocation approach.

解释:

C is correct.

Risk-factor based optimization is the most robust asset allocation approach.


蒙特卡洛模拟来做另类的资产配置的时候,核心的目标是去模拟一个skewed and fat-tailed 收益与风险的分布;具体方法是这三步:

确定low-volatility 以及 high-volatility两种情况下的风险因子,确定好之后,用蒙特卡洛模拟建议不同情况下的收益模型,然后再把这个不同情况下的收益模型叠加起来,就能构建一个skewed and fat-tailed模型,这样就符合另类投资的收益风险特征了。

这是讲义当中写的具体步骤哈:

Estimate the behavior of factors and/or assets in low-volatility regimes and high-volatility regimes

then generating scenarios using the different means and covariances estimated under the different regimes.

This mixture of high-and low-volatility normal distributions would lead to an altogether skewed and fat-tailed distribution of asset class return or risk factor changes.

您好,我对于B中间 “normal distribution"这一段不理解,如果不是这个,我觉得B是对的。


Monte Carlo Simulation combines the high and low volatility normal distributions to lead a skewed and fat-tailed distribution for alternative investments.

1 个答案

伯恩_品职助教 · 2022年01月18日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


这个是指正态分布,就是像下图,打个比方,国人绝大部分的月收入都是在3000到15000之间,而两边的小于1000元或者大于10万元的都是极少数。

 skewed and fat-tailed distribution 而这个表示中间的不是最多的,两边或者某一边的才是最多的。

而蒙特卡洛模拟是不需要一定是normal distribution的,用high-and low-volatility normal distributions 导出an altogether skewed and fat-tailed distribution of asset class return or risk factor changes。

这个具体怎么操作的,是很复杂的,很贵的,我没见过,确实也不会,考试也不可能考,具体过程就不用知道了,知道结论就好

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就算太阳没有迎着我们而来,我们正在朝着它而去,加油!

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