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和棋 · 2022年01月16日

没有理解这一题的出题逻辑

NO.PZ2018091901000052

问题如下:

Neshie Wakuluk is an investment strategist. Exhibit 1 summarizes Wakuluk’s predictions:

Wakuluk decides to focus on Country Y. Wakuluk makes the following observations:

Observation 1 Monetary policy has been persistently loose for Country Y, while fiscal policies have been persistently tight.

Based on Observation 1, fiscal and monetary policies in Country Y will most likely lead to:

选项:

A.

low nominal rates.

B.

high nominal rates.

C.

either high or low nominal rates.

解释:

C is correct.

Monetary policy has been persistently loose for Country Y, while fiscal policies have been persistently tight. With this combination of persistently loose and tight policies, the impact could lead to higher or lower nominal rates (typically labeled as mid-nominal rates).

解析:

Y国的货币政策持续宽松(通胀上升),财政政策持续紧缩(真实利率下降)。由于持续的宽松和紧缩政策(货币和财政政策并不一致),其影响可能导致名义利率上升或下降(通常被称为中间名义利率)。

因此只有C选项正确。

如果是宽松的货币政策是现在的利率低,但是将来的利率会变高。如果是紧缩的财政政策,是现在的利率低。但是我看答案好像是把货币政策将来会发生的事情结合现在正在进行的财政政策得出的uncertain的结论。这个时间期限不一致吧?

1 个答案

源_品职助教 · 2022年01月17日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:



同学可以参考下讲义P83的表格,题目考察的就是表格的结论。

表格里认为名义利率由通胀和真实利率构成,而前者是由货币政策决定的,后者是由财政政策决定的。

这也是原版书的结论。笔者在这里讨论的时候,并没有划分期限,只是做出了我上述的结论。

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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

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NO.PZ2018091901000052问题如下 Neshie Wakuluk is investment strategist. Exhibit 1 summarizes Wakuluk’s prections: Wakuluk cis to focus on Country Y. Wakuluk makes the following observations:Observation 1 Monetary polihbeen persistently loose for Country Y, while fiscpolicies have been persistently tight.Baseon Observation 1, fiscanmonetary policies in Country Y will most likely leto:A.low nominrates. B.high nominrates. either high or low nominrates. C is correct.Monetary polihbeen persistently loose for Country Y, while fiscpolicies have been persistently tight. With this combination of persistently loose antight policies, the impacoulleto higher or lower nominrates (typically labeleminominrates). 解析:Y国的货币政策持续宽松(通胀上升),财政政策持续紧缩(真实利率下降)。由于持续的宽松和紧缩政策(货币和财政政策并不一致),其影响可能导致名义利率上升或下降(通常被称为中间名义利率)。因此只有C正确。我还在想contraction阶段,宽松的货币政策很有可能传导不下去,相对而言财政政策影响可能更大,所以利率会下降?所以遇到这种题,不用考虑business cycle阶段,直接两个正常人影响一叠加就行了?

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