源_品职助教 · 2022年01月07日
嗨，爱思考的PZer你好：
这两句话都是原版书的原话，都是在在教材P194，
一个说是顺周期的，这个结论是基于，周期模式是已经知晓的情况下（Because cyclical pattern of inflation is known）。
还有一个说是逆周期，是介于“horizon structure”这个假设。
这两类假设还是略有区别，原版书也做出了解释，供同学参考
Because the cyclical pattern of inflation is well known, inflation expectations will also be procyclical.
It is important, however, to differentiate inflation expectations by horizon.
Very long-term inflation expectations should be virtually unaffected by cyclical fluctuations provided investors maintain confidence in the central bank’s target.
Short horizon expectations will tend to have about the same amplitude as actual inflation.
Inflation, and therefore inflation expectations, over intermediate horizons will be a blend of the different phases of the current and subsequent cycles.
Hence, the amplitude of expectations will decline with horizon—again, provided investors do not lose confidence in the central bank’s target.
----------------------------------------------就算太阳没有迎着我们而来，我们正在朝着它而去，加油！
