NO.PZ2021071301000013
问题如下:
If interest rate spread between long-term government bonds and overnight borrowing rate is narrowing, new orders for captial goods begins to decline, the economy has reached its :
选项:
A. peak.
B. recession.
C. recovery.
解释:
A is correct.
Interest rate spread between long-term government bonds and overnight borrowing rate and new orders for captial goods are leading indicators, the decline of them means the economy has reached the peak.
考点: economic indicators
解析:长期债与隔夜拆解利率之间的利差缩小表明短期利率上涨(抑制投资)或者长期利率下降(人们对于未来经济看衰),经济开始走弱。
同样new orders for captial goods的下降也表明总需求在下降,经济由强转弱。那么经济已经经历过了顶点,A选项入选。
单从长短期利率差来说,收窄A和B都对。题目中说的new orders for capital good.和讲义中的new orders for non-defense capital goods意思不一样吧。如果意思一样,还是A和B都对。如果意思不一样,那不知道这个指标是leading ,coincident,or lag