NO.PZ2020012102000009
问题如下：
A client has asked his adviser to explain the key considerations in forecasting exchange rates. The adviser’s firm uses two broad complementary approaches when setting expectations for exchange rate movements, namely focus on trade in goods and services and, secondly, focus on capital flows. Identify the main considerations that the adviser should explain to the client under the two approaches.
解释：
Under the frst approach analysts focus on flows of export and imports to establish what the net trade flows are and how large they are relative to the economy and other, potentially larger fnancing and investment flows. The approach also considers differences between domestic and foreign inflation rates that relate to the concept of purchasing power parity. Under PPP, the expected percentage change in the exchange rate should equal the difference between inflation rates. The approach also considers the sustainability of current account imbalances, reflecting the difference between national saving and investment.
Under the second approach the analysis focuses on capital flows and the degree of capital mobility. It assumes that capital seeks the highest risk-adjusted return. The expected changes in the exchange rate will reflect the differences in the respective countries’ assets’ characteristics such as relative short-term interest rates, term, credit, equity and liquidity premiums. The approach also considers hot money flows and the fact that exchange rates provide an across the board mechanism for adjusting the relative sizes of each country’s portfolio of assets.
解析：
在第一种方法下，分析师关注进出口流动，以确定净贸易流动是多少，以及它们相对于经济和其他可能更大的贸易和投资流动的规模有多大。该方法还考虑了与购买力平价概念相关的国内和国外通胀率之间的差异。按购买力平价计算，汇率的预期变动百分比应等于通胀率之间的差额。该方法还考虑了经常账户失衡的可持续性，反映了国民储蓄和投资之间的差异。
在第二种方法下，重点分析了资本流动和资本流动程度。它假定资本追求经风险调整后的最高回报。汇率的预期变动将反映各国资产的不同特征，如相对短期利率、期限、信贷、股本和流动性溢价。该方法还考虑了热钱流动和汇率提供了一个全面调整各国资产组合相对规模的机制这一事实。
The first approach focuses on current account balance.
- current account surplus or deficit is relatively small in size compared to the whole economy thus will have limited influence on exchange rate.
- according to the purchasing power parity, the change of nominal exchange rate equals to the inflation level differentials and the real exchange rate remains stable.
- the sustainability of current account imbalances is also an important considration.
- the change in the exchange rate equals to the differences in the expected investment returns.
- according to the uncovered interest rate pairty, the difference in risk-free rate dominates the change in the exchange rate and overwhelmes other considerations.
- this approach also considers the impact of carry trade and hot money flow.
