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呀呀琦 · 2021年12月05日

example问题

NO.PZ2018091702000031

问题如下:

Gerhard Ludwigs founded ABC Innovations (ABC), a biotech company dedicated to small cell lung cancer research. For the past two years, ABC has been dedicated to Project M, an effort directed at developing a drug for the treatment of relapses in small cell lung cancer. Project M has delayed its Phase Two trials twice. Published results from Phase One trials have raised some concerns regarding the drug. In its last two quarterly investors’ conference calls, ABC’s CEO was very cautious in discussing expectations for Project M. ABC’s stock price decreased by over 20 percent during the past six months. Gerber believes that the research setbacks are temporary because of ABC’s past success with projects. He expects that ABC will begin Phase Two within a year, and also believes that once Project M goes into Phase Two, ABC’s stock price should reach a new 52- week high of CHF 80.

Soon after deciding to hold the stock, Gerber reads an article by ABC’s chief scientist in which certain scientific results from Project M are detailed. As a conclusion, the article states: "Although we still have some major obstacles to overcome, the Project M team has seen positive signs that a treatment for small cell lung cancer is achievable." While Gerber has difficulty interpreting the scientific results, he feels reassured after reading the concluding statement.

Today, ABC announces the news that it will no longer pursue Project M, citing early signs of failure of the project. As a result of the announcement, the stock price drops by 50 percent. Gerber is stunned. He reviews the company’s history and notes that ABC has been up front about its struggles to solve the Project M issues. Gerber now realizes that he has been ignoring all the signs and feels a tremendous regret for not having sold the foundation’s investment in ABC earlier.

Discuss how Gerber displayed conservatism bias. Cite three examples from the reading.

选项:

解释:

Conservatism bias, a cognitive error, is a belief perseverance bias in which people maintain their prior views or forecasts by inadequately incorporating new information. This cognitive error has aspects of both statistical and information-processing errors. Gerber displayed conservatism bias by maintaining his prior views on ABC without adequately incorporating new information. There are several examples of new information that was either ignored or inadequately considered:

 the delays in initiation of Phase Two trials;

 the discouraging results from Phase One;

 the cautionary language from the CEO; and

 the chief scientist’s statement indicating that there were "major obstacles to overcome."

Gerber disregarded all the negative news and cautionary language that was released by ABC. Gerber failed to incorporate the new information into his analysis of ABC. The impact was a loss to the foundation, which could have been reduced had Gerber incorporated the information into his analysis and adjusted the foundation’s holdings of ABC.

 请问题目描述how Gerber displayed conservatism bias.

是否可以从G坚持了老观点、ignore新内容、只看支持自己的view这三方面来找example?

回答中的example全都是再说暗示G观点错误的例子,和HOW displayed好像也没关系

1 个答案

王琛_品职助教 · 2021年12月06日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


1)是否可以从G坚持了老观点、ignore新内容、只看支持自己的view这三方面来找example?

可以呀,但是同学根据这三方面找到的具体例子是什么呢?可以继续补充一下分析思路哈

2)回答中的example全都是再说暗示G观点错误的例子,和HOW displayed好像也没关系

回答中的 3 个例子,都是 Gerber 所忽视的新信息。忽视新信息,属于 conservatism bias 的结果哈,所以举例忽视的新信息,可以看成是在 display 有 conservatism bias

也请参考:https://class.pzacademy.com/qa/69175

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NO.PZ2018091702000031 GerharLuigs founAInnovations (ABC), a biotecompany cateto small cell lung cancer research. For the past two years, Ahbeen cateto ProjeM, effort recteveloping a ug for the treatment of relapses in small cell lung cancer. ProjeM hlayeits Phase Two trials twice. Publisheresults from Phase One trials have raisesome concerns regarng the ug. In its last two quarterly investors’ conferencalls, ABC’s CEO wvery cautious in scussing expectations for ProjeM. ABC’s stopricreaseover 20 percent ring the past six months. Gerber believes ththe researsetbacks are temporary because of ABC’s past success with projects. He expects thAwill begin Phase Two within a year, analso believes thonProjeM goes into Phase Two, ABC’s stoprishoulreaa new 52- week high of CHF 80. Soon after cing to holthe stock, Gerber rea article ABC’s chief scientist in whicertain scientific results from ProjeM are taile a conclusion, the article states: \"Although we still have some major obstacles to overcome, the ProjeM tehseen positive signs tha treatment for small cell lung cancer is achievable.\" While Gerber hfficulty interpreting the scientific results, he feels reassureafter reang the conclung statement. Toy, Aannounces the news thit will no longer pursue ProjeM, citing early signs of failure of the project. a result of the announcement, the stopriops 50 percent. Gerber is stunne He reviews the company’s history annotes thAhbeen up front about its struggles to solve the ProjeM issues. Gerber now realizes thhe hbeen ignoring all the signs anfeels a tremenus regret for not having solthe fountion’s investment in Aearlier. scuss how Gerber splayeconservatism bias. Cite three examples from the reang. Conservatism bias, a cognitive error, is a belief perseveranbiin whipeople maintain their prior views or forecasts inaquately incorporating new information. This cognitive error haspects of both statisticaninformation-processing errors. Gerber splayeconservatism bimaintaining his prior views on Awithout aquately incorporating new information. There are severexamples of new information thweither ignoreor inaquately consire • the lays in initiation of Phase Two trials; • the scouraging results from Phase One; • the cautionary language from the CEO; an• the chief scientist’s statement incating ththere were \"major obstacles to overcome.\" Gerber sregarall the negative news ancautionary language thwreleaseABGerber faileto incorporate the new information into his analysis of ABThe impawa loss to the fountion, whicoulhave been recehGerber incorporatethe information into his analysis anaustethe fountion’s holngs of AB老师好,这种题型,是否就是主观题(或essay题)?谢谢。

2022-01-24 10:17 1 · 回答

GerharLuigs founAInnovations (ABC), a biotecompany cateto small cell lung cancer research. For the past two years, Ahbeen cateto ProjeM, effort recteveloping a ug for the treatment of relapses in small cell lung cancer. ProjeM hlayeits Phase Two trials twice. Publisheresults from Phase One trials have raisesome concerns regarng the ug. In its last two quarterly investors’ conferencalls, ABC’s CEO wvery cautious in scussing expectations for ProjeM. ABC’s stopricreaseover 20 percent ring the past six months. Gerber believes ththe researsetbacks are temporary because of ABC’s past success with projects. He expects thAwill begin Phase Two within a year, analso believes thonProjeM goes into Phase Two, ABC’s stoprishoulreaa new 52- week high of CHF 80. Soon after cing to holthe stock, Gerber rea article ABC’s chief scientist in whicertain scientific results from ProjeM are taile a conclusion, the article states: \"Although we still have some major obstacles to overcome, the ProjeM tehseen positive signs tha treatment for small cell lung cancer is achievable.\" While Gerber hfficulty interpreting the scientific results, he feels reassureafter reang the conclung statement. Toy, Aannounces the news thit will no longer pursue ProjeM, citing early signs of failure of the project. a result of the announcement, the stopriops 50 percent. Gerber is stunne He reviews the company’s history annotes thAhbeen up front about its struggles to solve the ProjeM issues. Gerber now realizes thhe hbeen ignoring all the signs anfeels a tremenus regret for not having solthe fountion’s investment in Aearlier. scuss how Gerber splayeconservatism bias. Cite three examples from the reang. Conservatism bias, a cognitive error, is a belief perseveranbiin whipeople maintain their prior views or forecasts inaquately incorporating new information. This cognitive error haspects of both statisticaninformation-processing errors. Gerber splayeconservatism bimaintaining his prior views on Awithout aquately incorporating new information. There are severexamples of new information thweither ignoreor inaquately consire • the lays in initiation of Phase Two trials; • the scouraging results from Phase One; • the cautionary language from the CEO; an• the chief scientist’s statement incating ththere were \"major obstacles to overcome.\" Gerber sregarall the negative news ancautionary language thwreleaseABGerber faileto incorporate the new information into his analysis of ABThe impawa loss to the fountion, whicoulhave been recehGerber incorporatethe information into his analysis anaustethe fountion’s holngs of AB老师这个G的之前的观点是什么啊?这个题问的是不是要找出三个佐证G坚持之前观点是错误的,也就是说G不应该坚持之前的观点?

2020-12-17 15:43 1 · 回答

GerharLuigs founAInnovations (ABC), a biotecompany cateto small cell lung cancer research. For the past two years, Ahbeen cateto ProjeM, effort recteveloping a ug for the treatment of relapses in small cell lung cancer. ProjeM hlayeits Phase Two trials twice. Publisheresults from Phase One trials have raisesome concerns regarng the ug. In its last two quarterly investors’ conferencalls, ABC’s CEO wvery cautious in scussing expectations for ProjeM. ABC’s stopricreaseover 20 percent ring the past six months. Gerber believes ththe researsetbacks are temporary because of ABC’s past success with projects. He expects thAwill begin Phase Two within a year, analso believes thonProjeM goes into Phase Two, ABC’s stoprishoulreaa new 52- week high of CHF 80. Soon after cing to holthe stock, Gerber rea article ABC’s chief scientist in whicertain scientific results from ProjeM are taile a conclusion, the article states: \"Although we still have some major obstacles to overcome, the ProjeM tehseen positive signs tha treatment for small cell lung cancer is achievable.\" While Gerber hfficulty interpreting the scientific results, he feels reassureafter reang the conclung statement. Toy, Aannounces the news thit will no longer pursue ProjeM, citing early signs of failure of the project. a result of the announcement, the stopriops 50 percent. Gerber is stunne He reviews the company’s history annotes thAhbeen up front about its struggles to solve the ProjeM issues. Gerber now realizes thhe hbeen ignoring all the signs anfeels a tremenus regret for not having solthe fountion’s investment in Aearlier. scuss how Gerber splayeconservatism bias. Cite three examples from the reang. Conservatism bias, a cognitive error, is a belief perseveranbiin whipeople maintain their prior views or forecasts inaquately incorporating new information. This cognitive error haspects of both statisticaninformation-processing errors. Gerber splayeconservatism bimaintaining his prior views on Awithout aquately incorporating new information. There are severexamples of new information thweither ignoreor inaquately consire • the lays in initiation of Phase Two trials; • the scouraging results from Phase One; • the cautionary language from the CEO; an• the chief scientist’s statement incating ththere were \"major obstacles to overcome.\" Gerber sregarall the negative news ancautionary language thwreleaseABGerber faileto incorporate the new information into his analysis of ABThe impawa loss to the fountion, whicoulhave been recehGerber incorporatethe information into his analysis anaustethe fountion’s holngs of AB请问这种简答题怎么练习,感觉做的时候不知如何下手?

2019-12-24 22:11 1 · 回答

    怎么理解答案里说的“this cognitive error haspects of both statisticinformation processing errors”?Conservatism 不是belief perseveran的一种吗,为啥和statistic以及 information processing 又扯上关系了

2019-10-25 05:20 3 · 回答