NO.PZ201512300100000403
问题如下：
3. Based on the historical record of surprises in inflation and productivity, the historical equity risk premium for the US equity market, if it is used asan estimate of the forward-looking equity risk premium, should most likely be:
选项：
A. left unchanged.
B. adjusted upward.
C. adjusted downward.
解释：
C is correct.
A string of favorable inflation and productivity surprises may result in a series of high returns that increase the historical mean estimate of the equity risk premium. To mitigate that concern, the analyst may adjust the historical estimate downward based on an independent forward-looking estimate.
通胀高那么股价会上涨，股价上涨意味着re小，但是通胀ERP上涨，re也上涨，那么价格会下跌。感觉两个很矛盾