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xxuannx · 2021年11月25日

公式需要记吗?如何理解?real exchange rate (A/B) = equilibrium real exchange rate + (real interest rate B - real interest rate A)- (risk premium B - risk premium A)

NO.PZ2018091706000061

问题如下:

Assume that the DM country has what is considered a low-yield safe haven currency while the EM country has a high-yield currency whose value is more exposed to fluctuations in the global economic growth rate. All else equal, the exchange rate for the EM currency will most likely depreciate if the:


选项:

A.

long-run equilibrium value of the high-yield currency is revised upward 

B.

nominal yield spread between the EM and DM countries increases over time 

C.

expected inflation differential between the EM and DM countries is revised upward 

解释:

All else equal, an increase in the expected inflation differential should lead to depreciation of the EM currency.

解析:

real exchange rate (A/B) = equilibrium real exchange rate + (real interest rate B - real interest rate A)- (risk premium B - risk premium A)

根据上述公式。所以AB选项错误。

在其它条件相同的情况下,预期通胀率的扩大会加两国的风险溢价之差,从而应会导致新兴市场货币贬值。所以C选项正确。


这个公式需要记吗?该怎么理解呢?

real exchange rate (A/B) = equilibrium real exchange rate + (real interest rate B - real interest rate A)- (risk premium B - risk premium A)


然后可以再解释下A选项吗

1 个答案
已采纳答案

笛子_品职助教 · 2021年11月25日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


这个公式需要记吗?该怎么理解呢?


需要记住的。


real exchange rate (A/B) = equilibrium real exchange rate + (real interest rate B - real interest rate A)- (risk premium B - risk premium A)


实际汇率 = 均衡汇率 + 实际利率的利差 + 风险溢价之差。




可以这样理解:

就是说对于实际的交易汇率,我们在均衡的汇率水平上要对利率和风险因素进行区分,


实际利率水平高,说明国家的潜在GDP增速快,就会引起实际汇率升值。

如果风险溢价比较高,意味着国家的风险很高,会造成实际汇率贬值。



再解释下A选项

A选项主要还是要读懂题目。

题目意思是:已知real exchange rate (A/B) 贬值,那么哪一项会造成real exchange rate (A/B)贬值。



做法就是根据公式去推。

real exchange rate (A/B) = equilibrium real exchange rate + (real interest rate B - real interest rate A)- (risk premium B - risk premium A)


A选项说,equilibrium real exchange rate升值,会造成real exchange rate (A/B)贬值。

从上述公式看,equilibrium real exchange rate升值会使real exchange rate (A/B)升值,而非贬值。所以A选项不对。




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