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Ruby Ye · 2021年11月16日

current account deficit and pressure on real required return

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NO.PZ202105270100000505

问题如下:

Based on Bader’s expectations for current account secular trends as shown in Exhibit 1, Bader should reallocate capital, all else being equal, from:

选项:

A. Country A to Country C.

B. Country B to Country A.

C. Country C to Country A.

解释:

A is correct.

Bader should reallocate capital from Country A, which is expected to have a secularly rising current account deficit, to Country C, which is expected to have a secularly rising current account surplus. A rising current account deficit will tend to put upward pressure on real required returns and downward pressure on asset prices, whereas a rising current account surplus (or narrowing deficit) will put downward pressure on real required returns and upward pressure on asset prices. Analysts should consider reallocation of portfolio assets from countries with secularly rising current account deficits to those with secularly rising current account surpluses (or narrowing deficits).

老师,关于解析中提到的rising current account deficit will put pressure on real required return,请问这个要怎么理解?另外这个知识点对应的基础班课程是哪个?谢谢
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源_品职助教 · 2021年11月16日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


首先,咱们一级和三级都有这样一个公式,

X-M=(S-I)+(T-G)

贸易赤字增加表明X-M小于0,那么S-I也有会小于0

这就表明,储蓄小于投资,

那么这个时候赤字国就有动力增加利率水平鼓励人们储蓄,支援投资。

这个知识点对应了咱们基础班讲义P219内容 CURRENT ACCDFOUNT BALANCE


----------------------------------------------
虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

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NO.PZ202105270100000505问题如下Baseon Bar’s expectations for current account secultren shown in Exhibit 1, Bar shoulreallocate capital, all else being equal, from:A.Country A to Country C.B.Country B to Country A.C.Country C to Country A. A is correct. Bar shoulreallocate capitfrom Country whiis expecteto have a secularly rising current account ficit, to Country whiis expecteto have a secularly rising current account surplus. A rising current account ficit will tento put upwarpressure on rerequirereturns anwnwarpressure on asset prices, wherea rising current account surplus (or narrowing ficit) will put wnwarpressure on rerequirereturns anupwarpressure on asset prices. Analysts shoulconsir reallocation of portfolio assets from countries with secularly rising current account ficits to those with secularly rising current account surpluses (or narrowing ficits).巴德尔应该将资本从A国(预计经常账户赤字将长期上升)重新配置到C国(预计经常账户盈余将长期上升)。不断上升的经常账户赤字往往会给实际所需回报带来上行压力,给资产价格带来下行压力,而不断上升的经常账户盈余(或赤字缩小)则会给实际所需回报带来下行压力,给资产价格带来上行压力。分析师应考虑将投资组合资产从经常账户赤字长期上升的国家重新配置到经常账户盈余长期上升(或赤字不断缩小)的国家。 国别三的这个热钱涌入因素不用考虑吗

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