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Eva · 2021年11月14日

higher inflation expectation会导致hight P/E

NO.PZ2015121810000026

问题如下:

All else equal, which of the following would most likely explain the fall in price of a particular company’s shares?

选项:

A.

The expected inflation rate falls.

B.

The company’s future cash flows are expected to increase.

C.

The yield to maturity on real default-free investments rises.

解释:

C is correct.

According to the fundamental pricing equation, the market value of an asset is affected by economic factors that affect the asset’s expected future cash flows, default-free interest rates, expected inflation rates or the asset’s risk premium. From Equation 1 in Section 2.1, expected cash flows are in the numerator, while expected inflation and the real risk-free rate are in the denominator. Consequently, a rise in the real risk-free rate (the yield to maturity on a default-free instrument) will lead to a fall in the price of a risky asset like stock by increasing the rate at which its cash flows are discounted.

考点:Equities and The Equity Risk Premium

解析:股票的价格和债券一样,也可以通过未来现金流折现求和计算。

A, expected inflation rate 影响的是分母折现率,通货膨胀率下降,分母变小,股票价格变大。

B, future cash flows影响的是分子未来现金流,分子变大,股票价格变大。

C, yield to maturity on real default-free investments 影响的是分母折现率,分母变大,股票价格变小。因此选C

请问为什么higher inflation expectation会导致hight P/E?

1 个答案

星星_品职助教 · 2021年11月14日

同学你好,

higher inflation expectation会导致fall in P/E

P/E中的分母E是默认已确定不变的。所以PE的大小只看分子P,即股价就可以。

任何一种金融产品的定价原则都是未来现金流折现求和,所以股价的确定就是未来现金流(股利等)按照股票的折现率进行折现。

the  expected inflation rate构成股价公式里分母折现率的一部分,所以如果 expected inflation rate上升,股价公式里的折现率分母上升,导致股价下降。进而P/E也随之下降。

反过来就是 expected inflation rate下降,股价公式里的分母折现率下降,股价上升,P/E上升(A选项说反了)。

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