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maggieqiqi · 2021年11月09日

请问C选项是什么意思,没太看懂,谢谢!

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NO.PZ201902210100000101

问题如下:

Which of Winslow’s statements about carry trades is correct?

选项:

A.

Statement I

B.

Statement II

C.

Statement III

解释:

A is correct.

Carry trades may or may not involve maturity mis-matches. Intra-market carry trades typically do involve different maturities, but inter-market carry trades frequently do not, especially if the currency is not hedged.

B is incorrect. Carry trades may involve only one yield curve, as is the case for intra-market trades. In addition, if two curves are involved they need not have different slopes provided there is a difference in the level of yields between markets.

C is incorrect. Inter-market carry trades do not, in general, break even if each yield curve goes to its forward rates. Intra-market trades will break even if the curve goes to the forward rates because, by construction of the forward rates, all points on the curve will earn the "first-period" rate (that is, the rate for the holding period being considered). Inter-market trades need not break even unless the "first-period" rate is the same in the two markets. If the currency exposure is not hedged, then breaking even also requires that there be no change in the currency exchange rate.

请问C选项是什么意思,没太看懂,谢谢!

1 个答案

pzqa015 · 2021年11月09日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


C选项正确的表述应该是intramarket carry trade在yield curve move to forward rate时breakeven,而不是intermarket carry trade。

首先明确一个债券估值的原理:

某个时间点债券的合理价格是这个时间点spot rate折现得到的价格。比如,现在1年期债券的合理价格是t=0时刻s1折现得到的价格;t=2时刻1年期债券的合理价格是t=2时刻的 spot rate s1得到,那么站在t=0时刻,s1是future spot rate。

然后我们来看这句话。

Statement 3描述是intra market carry trade的本质,即沿着收益率曲线roll down的效应:

如果收益率曲线不变,那么2年期债券持有1年后卖出,卖出价格的折现率是t=1时刻1年期spot rate s1,它应该与t=0时刻的forward rate f(1,1)相等,才能达到breakeven,否则,就有套利空间。

如果s1> f(1,1),则现在债券1年后的价格被高估(因为本应用更大的折现率s1计算债券1年后的价格,却用了一个更小的折现率 f(1,1)来折现)。

如果s1<f(1,1),则债券1年后的价格被低估(因为本应用更小的折现率s1计算债券1年后的价格,却用了一个更大的折现率 f(1,1)来折现)。

 

这道例题中,f(1,1)=3.01%,而如果收益率曲线不变,那么t=1时刻,对1年期spot rate的预期还是1%,也就是说E(S1)<f(1,1)。

债券在1年后的合理价格应该是用E(S1)折现,既然E(S1)<f(1,1),说明未来债券的价格是低于隐含在f(1,1)中的价格的,那么未来债券可以以一个更高的价格卖出(折现率低,价格高),这就是carry trade额外收益的来源。


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