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LHY · 2021年11月07日

U未来的理解逻辑链条

NO.PZ2015121810000029

问题如下:

Default-free real interest rates tend to be relatively high in countries with high expected economic growth because investors:

选项:

A.

increase current borrowing.

B.

have high inter-temporal rates of substitution.

C.

have high uncertainty about levels of future consumption.

解释:

A is correct.

The average level of default-free real interest rates is positively related to the expected rate of growth of the underlying economy and also to the volatility of economic growth in the economy. During periods of high expected economic growth, investors are less worried about the future and their consumption abilities in the futurethat is, their inter-temporal rate of substitution is low, so they borrow more today and save less. Other things being equal, this means that the average level of default-free real interest rates (the reciprocal of the rate of substitution, see Equation 4) should be higher in an economy with high growth, and lower in an economy with lower, more stable growth.  

考点:Real default-free interest rates

解析: economic growth增加,投资者的收入会增加,不担心未来没钱,所以储蓄减少,增加消费,所以信贷消费也会增加, current borrowing增加, A正确。current borrowing增加推动利率上涨,所以 default-free real interest rates 较高。

B,结论:经济增速变快,m减小。因为m=MUt+s/MUt, 经济变好,将来收入增加,投资者更有钱了,所以将来消费的爽度减小,MUt+s减小,所以m减小。

C,经济好的时候,将来消费的不确定是比较低的。因为经济好,投资者不担心将来没钱,所以会减少储蓄,增加消费,因此将来消费的不确定性低。

解析是:

investors are less worried about the future and their consumption abilities in the future—that is, their inter-temporal rate of substitution is low

不过我记得m = U未来/U现在

只能通过这个逻辑链条来理解吗:未来好,未来更有钱,财富增加会导致U较小,所以U未来减小,而U现在不变,所以m减小?

1 个答案

星星_品职助教 · 2021年11月07日

同学你好,

你提到的逻辑链条和中文解析中B选项的逻辑相同。正常就是这么理解的。如果有其他的理解方式,也可以具体写出来分析一下。


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NO.PZ2015121810000029 A,borrowing 增加,不应该是推动价格上升,利率降低吗?而且应该是borrowing减少吧,经济好的时候,大家把钱都拿去消费了,所以borrowing投资减少,所以利率上升,刺激投资。不知道这样理解对不对?

2021-03-26 18:38 1 · 回答

have high inter-temporrates of substitution. have high uncertainty about levels of future consumption. A is correct. The average level of fault-free reinterest rates is positively relateto the expecterate of growth of the unrlying economy analso to the volatility of economic growth in the economy. ring perio of high expecteeconomic growth, investors are less worrieabout the future antheir consumption abilities in the future—this, their inter-temporrate of substitution is low, so they borrow more toy ansave less. Other things being equal, this means ththe average level of fault-free reinterest rates (the reciprocof the rate of substitution, see Equation 4) shoulhigher in economy with high growth, anlower in economy with lower, more stable growth.   考点Refault-free interest rates 解析 economic growth增加,投资者的收入会增加,不担心未来没钱,所以储蓄减少,增加消费,所以信贷消费也会增加, current borrowing增加, A正确。current borrowing增加推动利率上涨,所以 fault-free reinterest rates 较高。 B,结论经济增速变快,m减小。因为m=MUt+s/MUt, 经济变好,将来收入增加,投资者更有钱了,所以将来消费的爽度减小,MUt+s减小,所以m减小。 C,经济好的时候,将来消费的不确定是比较低的。因为经济好,投资者不担心将来没钱,所以会减少储蓄,增加消费,因此将来消费的不确定性低。没有在讲义里找到关于current borrowings 增加的内容啊

2021-03-10 22:31 1 · 回答

是不是题干没有这句话countries with high expecteeconomic growth。 那么C就对了,因为volatility of future consumption = volatility G, G波动越大则fault free rate 大,是正向关系

2020-09-08 09:14 1 · 回答

    这个reang的理论都是用跨期替代率或者说资金供给来各自利率,从未引进资金需求这一概念,如果要用传统经济学的资金供求理论来利率,那么完全是另一种框架,甚至和本reang的理论是冲突的,这里出现A实在太牵强了。

2019-04-16 22:15 1 · 回答