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弓 · 2021年11月05日

slowdown究竟发生在peak的左边还是右边

NO.PZ2018091901000052

问题如下:

Neshie Wakuluk is an investment strategist. Exhibit 1 summarizes Wakuluk’s predictions:

Wakuluk decides to focus on Country Y. Wakuluk makes the following observations:

Observation 1 Monetary policy has been persistently loose for Country Y, while fiscal policies have been persistently tight.

Based on Observation 1, fiscal and monetary policies in Country Y will most likely lead to:

选项:

A.

low nominal rates.

B.

high nominal rates.

C.

either high or low nominal rates.

解释:

C is correct.

Monetary policy has been persistently loose for Country Y, while fiscal policies have been persistently tight. With this combination of persistently loose and tight policies, the impact could lead to higher or lower nominal rates (typically labeled as mid-nominal rates).

解析:

Y国的货币政策持续宽松(通胀上升),财政政策持续紧缩(真实利率下降)。由于持续的宽松和紧缩政策(货币和财政政策并不一致),其影响可能导致名义利率上升或下降(通常被称为中间名义利率)。

因此只有C选项正确。

因为何老师的基础班与强化班课程都画了一幅business cycle phase的阶段图


譬如,基础班视频CME - Phases of Business Cycle(02),2分20秒


这幅图把slowdown放到了peak之后,也就是右边。


但教材和精讲讲义都说,在slowdown阶段,“The economy is slowing and approaching the eventual peak”,这个approaching意味着应该出现peak的左边才是。


请问该怎么理解?




弓 · 2021年11月05日

而且,economy只是slowing,并不是倒退,出现在右边也还是觉得不合适。

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源_品职助教 · 2021年11月05日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


同学,咱们三级经济没有图例,

但是我在一级经济的原版书里找到了官方图例,你可以参考下哈

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加油吧,让我们一起遇见更好的自己!

弓 · 2021年11月05日

谢谢你,我可以睡个好觉了。

源_品职助教 · 2021年11月07日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


我没有找到原版书上类似的表述,但是我觉得你这样理解应该是OK的。


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努力的时光都是限量版,加油!

源_品职助教 · 2021年11月05日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


不客气,预祝考试顺~

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加油吧,让我们一起遇见更好的自己!

源_品职助教 · 2021年11月05日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


SLOWDOWN应该还是在右边。

因为PEAK是最高峰嘛,这个是毋庸置疑的。

讲义说的,approaching the eventual peak,在右边从高度上接近也没问题的

而且经济周期五阶段是按时间线论述的,图形上,SLOWDOWN就应该在PEAK的右边

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加油吧,让我们一起遇见更好的自己!

弓 · 2021年11月06日

请问是不是应该这么理解:所谓peak左边的上升阶段,就是GDP增速不断上升的过程,譬如过去三年的GDP增速是3%,4%,5%。而peak右边的下降阶段,就是GDP增速不断下滑的过程,譬如5%,4%,3%,这个增速的下滑,其实就是the economy is slowing。并不是说,经济出现负增长才算peak右边(譬如GDP增速 -2%)。

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