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Danlei · 2021年11月01日

置信度越高,measurement error越小

NO.PZ2016062402000036

问题如下:

The measurement error in VAR, due to sampling variation, should be greater with

选项:

A.

More observations and a high confidence level (e.g. , 99%)

B.

Fewer observations and a high confidence level

C.

More observations and a low confidence level (e.g. , 95%)

D.

Fewer observations and a low confidence level

解释:

Sampling variability (or imprecision) increases with (1) fewer observations and (2) greater confidence levels. To show (1), we can refer to the formula for the precision of the sample mean, which varies inversely with the square root of the number of data points. A similar reasoning applies to (2). A greater confidence level involves fewer observations in the left tails, from which VAR is computed.

我看之前有一个老师的解答,说的是置信度越高,小于VAR的值就越少。

这句话是理解成这样么?因为VAR是损失的概念,所以在作为,当置信度越高的时候,VAR就越在左边,所以VAR左边的数值就越少,所以,VAR就越有可能是被正常估计的,所以measurement error就越小。

这样理解对么?

1 个答案

DD仔_品职助教 · 2021年11月01日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


可以这么理解,

也可以站在假设检验的角度想:置信区间越高,代表的是拒绝域越小,那么也就意味着拒绝VaR不对的可能性越小,那就越可能接受VaR是正确的,那么出现error的可能性就越小,我觉得这样想更容易理解一些。

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努力的时光都是限量版,加油!

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