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小米魔女 Michelle Zhao · 2021年10月23日

名义利率

NO.PZ2018091706000061

问题如下:

Assume that the DM country has what is considered a low-yield safe haven currency while the EM country has a high-yield currency whose value is more exposed to fluctuations in the global economic growth rate. All else equal, the exchange rate for the EM currency will most likely depreciate if the:


选项:

A.

long-run equilibrium value of the high-yield currency is revised upward 

B.

nominal yield spread between the EM and DM countries increases over time 

C.

expected inflation differential between the EM and DM countries is revised upward 

解释:

All else equal, an increase in the expected inflation differential should lead to depreciation of the EM currency.

解析:

real exchange rate (A/B) = equilibrium real exchange rate + (real interest rate B - real interest rate A)- (risk premium B - risk premium A)

根据上述公式。所以AB选项错误。

在其它条件相同的情况下,预期通胀率的扩大会加两国的风险溢价之差,从而应会导致新兴市场货币贬值。所以C选项正确。


老师,请问这个的意思是需要名义利率下降,这样会导致贬值,在实际利率不变的情况下,就是Inflation变化?
2 个答案

笛子_品职助教 · 2021年10月24日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


real interest翻译到中文名称,是实际利率(有时候也称真实利率),实际利率 = 名义利率 - 通货膨胀率。实际利率往往和一个国家的实际经济增长呈现正相关,一个实际经济增长快的国家,它的实际利率也就越高。

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笛子_品职助教 · 2021年10月23日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


不是名义利率下降会导致汇率贬值。是名义利率高的那个,在长期看,汇率会贬值。


这个原理就是,如果EM国家名义利率高,那么资金就会流入EM国家,但是EM国家的超额收益不会一直存在,高利率带来的收益,会因为汇率贬值再亏出去,从而使投资EM的收益率和投资DM的收益率相近。


解析中给出了公式,这个公式也可以得出类似的结论

real exchange rate (A/B) = equilibrium real exchange rate + (real interest rate B - real interest rate A)- (risk premium B - risk premium A)


这里,Inflation就是risk premium的一种。C选项中,expected inflation differential between the EM and DM countries is revised upward ,就表明公式中(risk premium B - risk premium A)扩大,代入公式可知,real exchange rate (A/B)会减少。

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加油吧,让我们一起遇见更好的自己!

小米魔女 Michelle Zhao · 2021年10月23日

老师 谢谢 能否请解释一下公式里面real interrst

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