关于bias

嗨，爱思考的PZer你好：

不算

1

首先，这道题是真题 2012-4-B，收录于经典题 R8 的 1.1 题，题目让我们从四个偏差中选择 Stoffer 体现的偏差，四个偏差中并没有 confirmation bias

2

其次，就同学引用的题干而言，是没有 confirmation bias 的，反应的是 illusion of Control

Stoffer 的投资组合中涉及银行的股票，关键是这家银行就是她所工作的银行，题干说了她是这家银行的中层经理，她也遵守她爸的建议 "只投你懂的东西"，所以她认为自己在这家银行工作，很懂这家公司，所以对股价有更多的控制感

可以再看一下原版书 P65 "Consequences of Illusion of Control" 的第二段，我把关键词也放在下面，可以参考一下

"Researchers have found that some investors prefer to invest in companies that they may feel they have some control over, like the companies they work for, leading them to hold concentrated positions. In fact, most investors have almost no control over the companies they work for."

关于 illusion of control，还有一种关联，是提到归功于复杂的模型，比如经典题有答案版 P21 的 1.14 题 "She attributes the accuracy to her firm’s highly complex forecast models, including sensitivity analysis and the confirmation of similar information sourced from multiple databases"

也请参考基础班讲义 P141 "Illusion of control bias can lead analysts to feel they have all available data and have reduced or eliminated all risk in forecasting model.

3

关于 confirmation bias，最经典的偏差结果有两个

第一个是：只考虑现有投资的正面信息，而忽略任何关于投资的负面信息。

"Consider only the positive information about an existing investment and ignore any negative information about the investment."

考查题目：真题-2017-5-B (经典题 R8-1.7)，课后题 R8-4

第二个针对分析师，是：人们将证据误读为对最初假设的额外支持。当分析人员以倾向于证实其假设的方式，设置他们的分析或构建他们的数据时，他们可能犯了 confirmation bias

"People misread evidence as additional support for an initial hypothesis. Analysts can be guilty of confirmation bias when they set up their analysis or frame their data in ways that tend to confirm their hypotheses."

考查题目：课后题 R9-5

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