嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:
不太清楚同学对OVER SHOOT具体哪里不理解。以下是原版书关于OVER SHOOT的解释,供你参考。你可以就不理解的地方继续提问。
When the exchange rate is allowed to float, the link between interest rates and exchange rates is primarily expectational.
To equalize risk-adjusted expected returns across markets, interest rates must generally be higher (lower) in a currency that is expected to depreciate (appreciate).
Ironically, this dynamic can lead to seemingly perverse situations in which the exchange rate “overshoots” in one direction to generate the expectation of movement in the opposite direction.
The expectational linkage among exchange rates, interest rates, and asset prices is covered in detail at a later stage.
The overshooting mechanism suggests that there are likely to be three phases in response to relative improvement in investment opportunities.
First, the exchange rate will appreciate (Sd/f will decline) as capital flows toward the more attractive market. The more vigorous the flow,
the faster and greater the appreciation of the domestic currency and the more the flow will also drive up asset prices in that market.
Second, in the intermediate term, there will be a period of consolidation as investors begin to question the extended level of the exchange rate and to form expectations of a reversal.
Third, in the longer run, there will be a retracement of some or all of the exchange rate move depending on the extent to which underlying opportunities have been equalized by asset price adjustments.
----------------------------------------------努力的时光都是限量版,加油!