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落了一地 · 2021年10月08日

confirmation basis和availability basis区分

* 问题详情,请 查看题干

NO.PZ201511190100000405

问题如下:

With regard to Johnson’s comment relating to Garnier’s research analysts, which of the following biases is most likely to be present in the analysts’ data?

选项:

A.

Confirmation bias.

B.

Availability bias.

C.

Self-attribution bias.

解释:

A is correct.

Confirmation bias, a cognitive bias, is the tendency for people to misread evidence as additional support for an initial hypothesis. Confirmation bias is a potential bias for analysts conducting research. It is a form of resolving cognitive dissonance that described the tendency to search for, or interpret, information in a way that confirms the analyst’s prior beliefs. The additional information may not be analyzed in a rigorous way, but it can nevertheless appear to make the judgment or forecast more likely by sharing some of its general characteristics.

这道题目关于confirmation basis和availability basis的区别没看明白。


看助教回答说分析师支持Johnson自己的股票所以是confirmation basis,如果是这样我理解。因为说明分析师confirm了Johnson已有的决定。


但题目中没说分析师支持的是Johnson已经有的股票啊,只是说分析师看好的股票Johnson愿意多承担风险。这不就是相当于Johnson愿意接受分析师推荐的股票,是availability basis么?

1 个答案

王琛_品职助教 · 2021年10月11日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


我认为这道题题想考查的对象,并不是 Johnson,而是分析师。请参考题干的问法:to be present in the analysts’ data。哪个偏差,最有可能在分析师的数据中出现

这道题我理解协会想考查的知识点是 Analyst Biases in Conducting Research,是分析师做研究时可能会出现的偏差,包括 confirmation bias,请参考基础班讲义 P144

所以协会考查的角度,可能不是 R8 行为偏差里面那种,需要通过主人公的言行举止去分析关键词,得出确切的偏差的思路

看协会的解析也能发现,对象是 analyst 分析师,而不是客户 Johnson

题干说的不太好,容易让人产生误会。这道题是 R9 课后题第 5 题,和第 6 题类似,都是题干给的描述,容易让考生产生其他联想,属于不太好的题目

对于这种题目,咱们通过题目顺带复习一下知识点即可,不需要纠结哈

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2022-07-11 17:18 1 · 回答

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NO.PZ201511190100000405 如果本题按照助教的说,主要是围绕分析师分析数据会出现的偏差,为什么B、C不选?

2021-12-22 11:09 1 · 回答

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