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Yaq7 · 2021年10月08日

Inter-market Trades-课后题Susan WinslowQ3

* 问题详情,请 查看题干

NO.PZ201902210100000104

问题如下:

Considering only the US, UK, and Euro markets, the most attractive duration-neutral, currency-neutral carry trade could be implemented as:

选项:

A.

Buy 3-year UK Gilts, Sell 3-year German notes, and enter a 6-month FX forward contract to pay EUR/receive GBP.

B.

Receive fixed/pay floating on a 3-year GBP interest rate swap and receive floating/pay fixed on a 3-year EUR interest rate swap.

C.

Buy the T-note futures contract and sell the German note futures contract for delivery in six months.

解释:

B is correct.

In order to be duration-neutral and currency-neutral, the trade must lend long/borrow short in one market and do the opposite (lend short/borrow long), with the same maturities, in another market. The best carry is obtained by lending long/borrowing short on the steepest curve and lending short/borrowing long on the flattest curve. The GBP curve is the steepest and the EUR curve is the flattest. The largest yield spread between these markets is 0.55% at the 3-year maturity, and the narrowest spread is 0.35% at the 6-month maturity. Hence, the best trade is to go long the GBP 3-year/short the EUR 3-year and long the EUR 6-month/short the GBP 6-month. This can be implemented in the swaps market by receiving 3-year fixed/paying 6-month floating in GBP and doing the opposite in EUR (receiving 6-month floating/paying 3-year fixed). The net carry is +0.10% = [(0.95% – 0.50%) + (0.15% – 0.40%)]/2 for six months.

A is incorrect. The FX forward position as stated (pay EUR/receive GBP) corresponds to implicitly borrowing EUR for six months and lending GBP for six months. Correct execution of the trade would require the opposite, receiving EUR and delivering GBP 6 months forward.

C is incorrect. This combination of futures positions does create a duration-neutral, currency neutral carry trade, but it is not the highest available carry. Since the T-note futures price reflects the pricing of the 5-year note as cheapest to deliver, the long position in this contract is equivalent to buying the 5-year Treasury and financing it for 6 months. This generates net carry of 0.275% = (1.95% – 1.40%)/2. Similarly, the short position in the German note futures is equivalent to being short the 5-year German note and lending the proceeds for 6 months, generating net carry of –0.225% = (0.15% – 0.60%)/2. The combined carry is 0.05%, half of what is available on the position in B.



关于题目中 前面找common currency算hedged return,老师以EUR作为common Currency

1.这里没有特别理清楚为啥表达方式为EUR/LC

2.以及R FX为啥可以约等于R EUR- R LC (这里串不起来了特别晕,是根据哪个公式/如何推导出来的?)

以及后面,是否要hedge?------这里为什么表达方式,又变成了LC/EUR?


此外,

1.本题里,为什么R FX=(r EUR- r MXN)/2 ----除以2没问题因为是半年,主要是为啥用的是表里提供的float rate6个月直接减?我开始会觉得应该用5y的rate来减,因为是投的长期;

2.以及如果告知了6个月的futures的exchange rate,是否应该根据公式F- S/S,来计算?


1 个答案

pzqa015 · 2021年10月09日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:



关于题目中 前面找common currency算hedged return,老师以EUR作为common Currency

 

1. 这里没有特别理清楚为啥表达方式为EUR/LC

--------------------

这里的common currency就是portfolio dominated currency,找hedged return的目的是比较不同跨国投资的收益,既然是跨国投资,那么portfolio dominated currency就是本币DC,投资国的货币是foreing currency FC,根据RDC=RFC+RFX这个计算跨国投资折算成本币收益率的计算公式,RFX所用的货币表达形式是DC/FC,所以如果以EUR为common currency,比较投资不同货币资产的表现,应该用EUR/FC的表达形式。

 

2. 以及R FX为啥可以约等于R EUR- R LC (这里串不起来了特别晕,是根据哪个公式/如何推导出来的?)

--------------------

比较hedged return,用到的是covered interest parity,接上面说的,货币标价为EUR/FC,那么根据CIP理论,F/S=(1+reur)/(1+rfc),汇率变动率为%△S=(F-S)/S=(reur-rfc)/(1+rfc)≈reur-rfc。

 

以及后面,是否要hedge?------这里为什么表达方式,又变成了LC/EUR?

-----------------------

 

如果portfolio currency是EUR,那么比较是否hedge,是比较分析师预期的EUR/FC形式的汇率变动(代表着FC的升值或贬值)与reur-rfc比较,不存在LC/EUR的表达形式,如果是LC/EUR的表达形式,那么一定是portfolio currency是LC,投资EUR的资产。

 

 

4.本题里,为什么R FX=(r EUR- r MXN)/2 ----除以2没问题因为是半年,主要是为啥用的是表里提供的float rate6个月直接减?我开始会觉得应该用5y的rate来减,因为是投的长期;

------------

这里hedge期限是半年,所以要用半年期的利率;如果hedge期是5年,那么用5y的利率。

5.以及如果告知了6个月的futures的exchange rate,是否应该根据公式F- S/S,来计算?

------------------

如果已知6个月futures的exchange rate,可以用(F-S)/S来计算。


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