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哟哟 · 2021年10月02日

这道题和上一道题(q5和前6)有什么区别?

* 问题详情,请 查看题干

NO.PZ201511190100000406

问题如下:

Patel’s comment in his risk tolerance questionnaire regarding the Private Wealth Investment Committee fails to recognize which bias?

选项:

A.

Social proof.

B.

Confirmation bias.

C.

Gambler’s fallacy.

解释:

A is correct.

Social proof is a belief in which individuals are biased to follow the beliefs of a group. The structure of Garnier’s Private Wealth Investment Committee indicates that they may be susceptible to a social proof bias. The committee meets to discuss and debate each security and then votes on which will be approved. Committee members may wrongly favor the judgment of others, often without being fully aware that they are doing so. The process of reaching a consensus will usually narrow the range of views. If a group decision process does not encourage private information held by individual committee members to be shared fully with others before a decision is made, the decision may fail to combine the collective wisdom of the group. There is no evidence that this committee encourages private information.

备注:这道题出的不太好,原版书给的答案A。Patel“一旦知道investment committee支持了某项投资,他的风险容忍程度会显著提高”,这句话既反映的是confirmation bias。social proof和herding是同义词,羊群效应,是一种从众的行为。Gambler's fallacy是赌徒谬误,比如连续五次抛出硬币的正面,认为第六次抛出硬币反面的概率非常高,但事实上,抛出反面的概率仍为50%,Patel没有这样的表现。不用纠结选项。

为什么这两道题一道答案是confirmation bias 一道是social proof? 两道题在题干中叙述几乎是一样的啊,都说只要是专业的投资团队认同这个投资那么这个individual的risk tolerance 就会提升。难道两个题答案不都应该是confirmation bias么? 还有想请问q6与q5在题干里哪里叙述的不同以至于q6不选confirmation bias而选social proof?
1 个答案

王琛_品职助教 · 2021年10月09日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


1

这两道题,我理解协会的本意,是想考查不同的知识点

第五题想考查的知识点是 Analyst Biases in Conducting Research

参考题干 "if she knew that more than one of Garnier’s research analysts supported it."

侧重在分析师的报告,背景是分析师做研究时可能会出现的偏差,包括 confirmation bias,请参考基础班讲义 P144

2

第六题想考查的知识点是 How Behavioral Factors Affect Committee Decision Making

参考题干 "if he knew that an investment had the unanimous support of Garnier’s Private Wealth Investment Committee."

侧重在投资委员会,背景是行为因素如何影响投资委员会的决策,对应基础班讲义 P146 的知识点

3

这两道题其实都出的不是太好,所以咱不需要对题干的措辞过于纠结,只要把握好想考查的知识点即可哈

考试时,题目出的都会很严谨,就是你一读题,脑海里只会反应出一个确凿无疑的偏差

第五题解题思路,请参考:https://class.pzacademy.com/qa/45811

第六题解题思路,请参考:https://class.pzacademy.com/qa/74259

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NO.PZ201511190100000406问题如下 Patel’s comment in his risk toleranquestionnaire regarng the Private Wealth Investment Committee fails to recognize whibias?A.Sociproof.B.Confirmation bias.C.Gambler’s fallacy.A is correct.Sociproof is a belief in whiinvials are biaseto follow the beliefs of a group. The structure of Garnier’s Private Wealth Investment Committee incates ththey msusceptible to a sociproof bias. The committee meets to scuss anbate easecurity anthen votes on whiwill approve Committee members mwrongly favor the jument of others, often without being fully aware ththey are ing so. The process of reaching a consensus will usually narrow the range of views. If a group cision process es not encourage private information helinvicommittee members to sharefully with others before a cision is ma, the cision mfail to combine the collective wism of the group. There is no evinththis committee encourages private information.备注这道题出的不太好,原版书给的答案A。Patel“一旦知道investment committee支持了某项投资,他的风险容忍程度会显著提高”,这句话既反映的是confirmation bias。sociproof和herng是同义词,羊群效应,是一种从众的行为。Gambler's fallacy是赌徒谬误,比如连续五次抛出硬币的正面,认为第六次抛出硬币反面的概率非常高,但事实上,抛出反面的概率仍为50%,Patel没有这样的表现。不用纠结。解析是想说confirmation和sociproof和herng是同一个意思,还是后两者是同一个意思但和第一个无关?

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