NO.PZ201511190100000506
问题如下:
The recent technical analysis department memo is most likely evidence of:
选项:
A. anchoring.
B. a confirmation bias.
C. the gambler’s fallacy.
解释:
C is correct.
The gambler’s fallacy is a cognitive behavioral bias in which an analyst wrongly projects a reversal to a long-term trend. This reflects a faulty understanding about the behavior of random events. The analyst expects a pattern that has diverged from the long term average to reverse within a specific period of time. The memo’s statement that technology and consumer goods sectors should rebound within a short time period demonstrates the gamble’s fallacy.
题目中提及的内容 是否也可以看作past experience ?