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· 2021年09月19日

能解释下b和c选项嘛,谢谢

NO.PZ2018091706000061

问题如下:

Assume that the DM country has what is considered a low-yield safe haven currency while the EM country has a high-yield currency whose value is more exposed to fluctuations in the global economic growth rate. All else equal, the exchange rate for the EM currency will most likely depreciate if the:


选项:

A.

long-run equilibrium value of the high-yield currency is revised upward 

B.

nominal yield spread between the EM and DM countries increases over time 

C.

expected inflation differential between the EM and DM countries is revised upward 

解释:

All else equal, an increase in the expected inflation differential should lead to depreciation of the EM currency.

解析:

real exchange rate (A/B) = equilibrium real exchange rate + (real interest rate B - real interest rate A)- (risk premium B - risk premium A)

根据上述公式。所以AB选项错误。

在其它条件相同的情况下,预期通胀率的扩大会加两国的风险溢价之差,从而应会导致新兴市场货币贬值。所以C选项正确。


能解释下b和c选项嘛,谢谢

2 个答案

丹丹_品职答疑助手 · 2021年09月26日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


同学你好,关于公式,可以这么理解,我们考虑名义汇率的变化,可以理解为利率的变动情况,而名义利率由可以理解为是实际利率+risk premium(inflation是里面的一个因子)。因此我们取实际汇率的时候需要从名义汇率中剔除相关risk premium的影响。

记忆的话可以记成实际汇率取决与两国实际利率成正相关,两国风险溢价负相关。

本题考察的在咱们二级经济学基础班讲义67页,如需详细解析也可以听下何老师的讲解。

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就算太阳没有迎着我们而来,我们正在朝着它而去,加油!

丹丹_品职答疑助手 · 2021年09月22日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


同学你好,根据公式:

real exchange rate (A/B) = equilibrium real exchange rate + (real interest rate B - real interest rate A)- (risk premium B - risk premium A)

real exchange rate 的差别和real interest rate spread 成正比,和risk premium spread成反向变动关系


题干问的是, the exchange rate for the EM currency 会下降,那么就需要equilibrium exchange real exchange rate 下降(A错误),或者nominal yield spread 下降(B错误),或者risk premium spread上升(C正确)

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就算太阳没有迎着我们而来,我们正在朝着它而去,加油!

荣 · 2021年09月26日

real exchange rate (A/B) = equilibrium real exchange rate + (real interest rate B - real interest rate A)- (risk premium B - risk premium A)请老师讲下这个公式的含义,只记得一级中名义利率=实际利率+预期通货膨胀率,转化为汇率中的还不是很懂

hwqjulia001 · 2021年11月24日

nominal yield spread 指哪一项

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