NO.PZ201511190100000506
问题如下：
The recent technical analysis department memo is most likely evidence of:
选项：
A.anchoring.
B.a confirmation bias.
C.the gambler’s fallacy.
解释：
C is correct.
The gambler’s fallacy is a cognitive behavioral bias in which an analyst wrongly projects a reversal to a long-term trend. This reflects a faulty understanding about the behavior of random events. The analyst expects a pattern that has diverged from the long term average to reverse within a specific period of time. The memo’s statement that technology and consumer goods sectors should rebound within a short time period demonstrates the gamble’s fallacy.
为什么这道题我们选择Gambler's fallacy
赌徒谬误，比如连续五次抛出硬币的正面，认为第六次抛出硬币反面的概率非常高，但事实上，抛出反面的概率仍为50%
这里没有体现啊
