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一只可爱的猪 · 2021年09月16日

为什么不选B

NO.PZ2019122802000036

问题如下:

Which of the following statement about Monte Carlo Simulation in alternative asset allocation is not correct?

选项:

A.

Monte Carlo Simulation relaxes the assumption of normally distributed return.

B.

Monte Carlo Simulation combines the high and low volatility normal distributions to lead a skewed and fat-tailed distribution for alternative investments.

C.

Monte Carlo Simulation is the most robust asset allocation approach.

解释:

C is correct.

Risk-factor based optimization is the most robust asset allocation approach.


蒙特卡洛模拟来做另类的资产配置的时候,核心的目标是去模拟一个skewed and fat-tailed 收益与风险的分布;具体方法是这三步:

确定low-volatility 以及 high-volatility两种情况下的风险因子,确定好之后,用蒙特卡洛模拟建议不同情况下的收益模型,然后再把这个不同情况下的收益模型叠加起来,就能构建一个skewed and fat-tailed模型,这样就符合另类投资的收益风险特征了。

这是讲义当中写的具体步骤哈:

Estimate the behavior of factors and/or assets in low-volatility regimes and high-volatility regimes

then generating scenarios using the different means and covariances estimated under the different regimes.

This mixture of high-and low-volatility normal distributions would lead to an altogether skewed and fat-tailed distribution of asset class return or risk factor changes.

我看了之前的解答还是无法理解B,老师可以回答一下吗?详细的,从原理是

1 个答案

伯恩_品职助教 · 2021年09月16日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


同学你好,首先我们做模拟都是基于正态分布的假设来分析的,为什么呢?因为这个世界绝对大部分都是遵循正态分布这个假设的,比如,班里,大部分智商都差不多,少部分人特别聪明和笨的,大部分身高都介于一个小范围,但总有一两个可能高于185或者低于155.这就是正态分布,大部分介于一般正常的值,小部分很好或者很坏的值很少发生。但是问题来了,有些东西它就是不遵守正态分布,没办法用传统的方法。这里就用蒙特卡洛模拟。

大部分投资的也都是大部分正向盈利一点,少部分收益很多和亏损。但是另类就是个异类,大部分收益是要么大赚要么亏损。传统方法用不了,就要用蒙特卡洛模拟了

原理: 当所要求解的问题是某种事件出现的概率,或者是某个随机变量的期望值时,它们可以通过某种“试验”的方法,得到这种事件出现的频率,或者这个随机变数的平均值,并用它们作为问题的解。这就是蒙特卡罗方法的基本思想。蒙特卡罗方法通过抓住事物运动的几何数量和几何特征,利用数学方法来加以模拟,即进行一种数字模拟实验。它是以一个概率模型为基础,按照这个模型所描绘的过程,通过模拟实验的结果,作为问题的近似解。可以把蒙特卡罗解题归结为三个主要步骤:构造或描述概率过程;实现从已知概率分布抽样;建立各种估计量。

简单说就是把过去发生过的事(一点要有大量的数据)建立统计,从中找出规律,然后根据统计出来的规律,加上新输入的数据去预测结果。这个题也是这个道理,蒙特卡洛模拟没有正态分布的假设前提,只需要有大量的数据建立出统计关系,然后进行预测。

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努力的时光都是限量版,加油!

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